Anticipated 1.5-fold jump in real wages by 2028, as per Economic Development Ministry's predictions.
Here's the revised version of the article:
Bracing for Wage Trends in Russia: Moderate Growth Ahead
Looking ahead to the years 2025 and beyond, Russia's wage landscape appears set for a more measured expansion, according to the Ministry of Economic Development and other experts.
Wage Expectations
While not reaching the seismic growth of recent years, wages are expected to continue their upward trajectory, albeit at a more restrained pace. The anticipated increase is expected to surpass the growth in labor productivity, meaning wages will increment faster than the economic output per worker.
Labor Productivity
In stark contrast, the growth in labor productivity is predicted to lag behind wage growth, painting a picture where wages advance at a faster clip than economic output per worker. While specific figures for productivity growth aren't offered, the current trend shows wages soaring faster than productivity, potentially affecting competitiveness and inflation.
Workforce and Labor Market
The tight labor market will persist, with unemployment hovering at record low levels. Nevertheless, the share of enterprises grappling with labor shortages is gradually abating across numerous regions, hinting at easing in labor supply constraints. Additionally, there's a noted reallocation of employees between industries, with labor demand waning in specific sectors and shifting to others.
No explicit projection of workforce size changes is provided, but the dynamics suggest continued involvement with potential sectoral shifts.
Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate will hold steady at record lows and is forecast to persist throughout this period, with no foreseeable surge projected through 2028, indicating stability or minor tightening.
Economic Growth Context
The Ministry of Economic Development anticipates a positive GDP growth forecast of 2.5% in 2025, gradually dipping to 2.4% in 2026, rebounding to 2.8% in 2027, and climbing to 3.0% in 2028. These favorable economic growth rates support the relatively robust labor market conditions and wage growth patterns described above.
In conclusion, from 2025 to 2028, Russia is predicted to witness moderate but consistent wage growth outpacing productivity increases, a snug labor market with very low unemployment, and some easing of labor shortages in certain regions and industries – all unfolding amid moderate economic growth according to the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank.
In this economic context, the finance sector can expect moderately increasing wages in Russia, with growth rates surpassing that of labor productivity, as predicted by the Ministry of Economic Development. Additionally, the business landscape might face challenges in maintaining competitiveness and managing inflation due to the faster wage growth compared to productivity.
