Anticipated Dollar Exchange Rates during the Year'sShortest Working Week
Peeking into the Forex Crystal Ball: USD/BYN and RUB/BYN Exchanges
Last week, the US dollar's exchange rate on Belarus' domestic market hovered near 3.00 BYN, but failed to breach it, settling back at USD/BYN 3.0512 by the week's end. Financial guru Mikhail Grachev shares his forecast for the upcoming week, regarding the dollar's potential stay at the 3-BYN mark.
While the dollar's exchange rate dropped slightly (-0.25%) from the previous period, it has softened by -12.16% since the year's start. The dollar hit its yearly low of USD/BYN 3.0251 on April 22, before rebounding to USD/BYN 3.0675 on April 24. The trading volume for the past week saw a significant boost, reaching 64.072 million US dollars. This week's total volume is expected to be even higher due to an additional trading day on the BVFB.
In contrast to the U.S. dollar, the Russian ruble unexpectedly fell throughout the trading week. By the end of the week, the ruble's exchange rate slid -0.89%, resting at RUB/BYN 3.6471 for 100 rubles on April 26. The trading volume hit a high not seen since late January, totaling 26,750.240 million rubles, equivalent to approximately 322 million US dollars.
This week on Belarus' currency market will only feature two trading days - April 30 and May 2. Despite the limited trading days, fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against major foreign currencies are still plausible under these conditions.
For the first half of this week, we'll keep a close eye on the Russian currency's exchange rate on the Russian financial market. Key factors driving the ruble remain in place, namely the Central Bank of Russia's monetary policy. Last Friday, the Bank, in line with expectations, kept the key rate unchanged at 21.00% during its latest meeting. However, the Bank's overall sentiment has marginally softened, but Elvira Nabiullina has yet to provide any reasons for premature optimism.
Meanwhile, Russian inflation has decreased to 8.3% (YoY) in Q1, dropping from 12.9% in Q4 2021, with no growth in lending and a slowdown in business economic activity. At the expanded meeting of the "Big Ministry of Finance" held last week, a proposal was made to lower the oil price cap from the current $60/barrel to $40/barrel. This move would increase reserves while reducing budget expenditures. The Central Bank generally approved this proposal, as it could act as a disinflationary factor.
With this week marked by the end of the tax period in Russia, external factors will heavily influence the end of the week. Key among these factors are NFP statistics from the U.S., with preliminary data set for release on April 30 and final data on May 2. The US Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee will hold its next meeting on May 7, and these data could significantly impact the interest rate decision. Unlike the ECB, the Fed is not hasty to lower the rate further, drawing criticism from President Donald Trump. However, if he decides to take action, results could follow. Yet, the holiday period might see some volatility on the Forex market.
Given all this, significant changes in the Belarusian ruble's exchange rate under the shortened trading regime are unlikely. However, external factors should not be neglected. For now, we anticipate the dollar rate to hover around USD/BYN 3.0550 - 3.080. The Russian ruble may slightly weaken to RUB/BYN 3.630 for 100 rubles.
Keep in mind that experts' opinions presented here may not coincide with the editorial stance and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell any assets or currencies.
Data and insights drawn from various financial reports and expert analyses
Further Insights:
- USD/RUB forecasts suggest a slight increase in the dollar's value against the ruble by the end of 2025[2][5].
- The ruble's performance against other currencies indicates potential pressure on its value across various markets[1].
- Geopolitical tensions, economic data releases, and energy market dynamics can significantly impact currency values[3].
Mikhail Grachev, a financial guru, shares his forecast for the upcoming week, predicting the continued proximity of the US dollar's exchange rate to the 3-BYN mark. The Russian ruble's unexpected decline during the week under consideration could influence the forecasts for USD/RUB, with experts estimating a slight increase in the dollar's value against the ruble by the end of 2025. Geopolitical tensions, economic data releases, and energy market dynamics, which impact the ruble's performance against other currencies, also pose potential pressure on its value across various markets.
