Anticipated Dollar Exchange Rates in July: Perspective on the Currency Market as the Month Begins
In the upcoming days of July 2025, the Ukrainian currency market is expected to exhibit relative stability, with minimal fluctuations, as reported by financial analysts from Politexpert, KYT Group, and LongForecast.
The exchange rate for the US dollar to Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH) is forecasted to start around 44.89 UAH per USD, with a high near 45.57 and a low of about 44.23. The average rate for the month is predicted to be approximately 44.90 UAH, indicating a stable outlook with a 0.0% projected change for July.
On the other hand, the euro to UAH exchange rate is expected to begin at approximately 51.05 UAH per euro, with a high of 51.11 and a low around 49.59. The average exchange rate for July is predicted to be about 50.53, with a gentle downward trend expected by the end of the month, suggesting a slight strengthening of the hryvnia against the euro, with an estimated -1.4% change.
The stability of the rate on the Ukrainian currency market is favourable, as it allows market participants to avoid risks associated with unexpected fluctuations in currency value. This stability is attributed to various factors, including the National Bank's active participation in currency interventions, the minimum spread between the buy and sell rates, and moderate activity from importers and investors.
The National Bank also has tools to compensate for a 5-7% increase in demand for currency, ensuring the maintenance of currency stability. The same parameters are expected on the cash market, creating favourable conditions for planning currency operations for both physical and legal entities on the Ukrainian currency market.
The current conditions favour the maintenance of currency stability, and if these parameters are maintained, it could avoid any serious shocks to the economy and citizens in July. The stability of the rate, given the current macroeconomic factors, allows market participants to plan their currency transactions accurately, providing predictable conditions for currency transactions.
However, it is important to note that external global political and economic factors, especially US monetary policy uncertainty, will remain significant influences on the currency market’s trajectory. The weakening US dollar globally and the strengthening euro are key factors influencing the exchange rate. Ongoing cautious currency liberalization measures controlled by Ukraine’s National Bank also play a role.
In conclusion, the Ukrainian hryvnia is expected to remain largely stable against the US dollar with minimal fluctuation, while showing a mild strengthening trend against the euro in the first days and through July 2025. The stability of the rate on the Ukrainian currency market is a positive sign for businesses and individuals planning their currency operations, as it reduces the risk of unexpected currency value fluctuations.
In the context of the predicted stability of the Ukrainian currency market, banking and insurance industries may witness increased stability and confidence, as minimal currency fluctuations reduce risks associated with overseas transactions. Furthermore, the anticipated slight strengthening of the hryvnia against the euro could potentially positively impact businesses in the finance and business sectors that have dealings with the European Union.
