Anticipated Q4 2024 Local Media Income of Sinclair to Fall Slightly Below Estimates
In a recent announcement, Sinclair, Inc. shared its preliminary results for the fourth quarter of 2024. The media company reported higher-than-expected distribution revenue, but the outlook for local broadcast-TV ad revenue in 2025 suggests a mixed environment.
According to industry analyses, total U.S. local advertising revenue is expected to decline by about 2.4% year-over-year in 2025. This downward pressure is attributed to economic challenges such as tariffs, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions affecting ad budgets across sectors. However, core local TV advertising spending is forecasted to grow by 6.1%, led by strong demand from sectors like legal services and automotive.
Digital local advertising, particularly Connected TV (CTV) and Over-the-Top (OTT) streaming, is projected to capture about 29.3% of local advertising in 2025. This trend incentivizes broadcasters, including Sinclair, to invest in digital and streaming ad strategies. Despite growth in streaming and digital, traditional local TV advertisers continue to support steady revenue, buoyed by political advertising in 2024 and strong sectoral demand.
Industry analyses updated in mid-2025 underscore that local TV broadcasters face a dynamic landscape where maintaining traditional ad revenue while scaling digital video and CTV opportunities is critical.
Sinclair, Inc. also provided preliminary estimates for its Q4 2024 Local Media segment expenses and revenues. The company expects its media revenues to be between $931 million and $933 million for the three months ended Dec. 31, 2024. Media programming and production expenses, as well as media selling, general and administrative expenses, are expected to be between $580 million and $582 million.
The company's political advertising revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to be approximately $203 million, while its core (nonpolitical) advertising revenue is expected to be between $300 million and $301 million. Sinclair's distribution revenue for the quarter is expected to be between $392 million and $393 million.
It's important to note that these preliminary results are unaudited estimates and are subject to revision. Sinclair, Inc. will report its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings results at 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2025. A conference call to discuss the results will follow at 4:30 pm ET on the same day.
The weakening ad market is reflected in Sinclair's non-political ad revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024. Most 2025 projections of local broadcast-TV ad revenue suggest a decline for the industry in core advertising excluding political.
The TV Tech Newsletter provides further insights into these developments, but no new information was shared in this paragraph. The article does not contain any new facts about the weakening ad market or industry projections of local broadcast-TV ad revenue for 2025. Additionally, the article does not contain any new information about Sinclair, Inc.'s debt offerings.
In summary, Sinclair's preliminary 4Q 2024 local media revenue likely reflects these broader trends: overall local advertising revenue pressure, but localized growth in core TV ad spending and an ongoing digital transformation that positions broadcasters for future revenue diversification.
- In response to the expected decline in total U.S. local advertising revenue in 2025, broadcasters, including Sinclair, are encouraged to invest in digital and streaming ad strategies.
- The FCC may need to consider the impacts of economic challenges on ad budgets, and how they could affect the finance and investing aspects of the media business.
- Sinclair's Local Media segment revenues for Q4 2024 include distribution revenue, media programming and production expenses, as well as media selling, general and administrative expenses.
- The weakening ad market is causing a decline in core advertising revenue for broadcasters like Sinclair, excluding political advertising.
- Trends in the media business suggest that local TV broadcasters must maintain traditional ad revenue while scaling digital video and Connected TV (CTV) opportunities to ensure continued production of video content and broadcast growth.
