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Poland's car markets are set to experience significant changes in 2025, with trends shaping around residual values, demand, powertrain diversification, and emissions regulations.
The Polish used car market is projected to reach USD 26.57 billion in 2025, growing at a CAGR of 6.54% towards 2030. The growth is driven by a booming import of aging EU vehicles, particularly near the western border, and a growing price gap favouring used cars over new ones, especially in urban centres.
While exact residual value forecasts are not directly cited, the growing used car market supported by imports and price gaps suggests stable demand for used vehicles, which could sustain residual values. However, legislative and tax changes will affect business use residual values, particularly for combustion vehicles.
Starting January 2026, Poland will implement significant new car depreciation limits linked directly to CO₂ emissions. This regulatory change aims to accelerate fleet electrification, support EU climate goals, and encourage low-emission fleet transitions. Companies will see less tax efficiency for combustion-engine cars, likely pushing demand towards electrified powertrains.
In the new car market, the Polish Government's new incentive scheme, 'MojEauto', published in January 2025, excludes companies from subsidies, potentially impacting the BEV market. New CAFE regulations, which came into force in 2025, could lead to price increases for new internal-combustion engine cars, reductions in their availability, or large price reductions for BEVs.
Consumer preferences show a rise in SUV popularity, which also grows fastest in used car sales, reflecting shifting taste towards higher-riding vehicles. Brands with hybrid and electric models are expanding their shares in the new car market.
The truck market in Poland has been significantly impacted by Europe's economic problems, with new-truck sales down 20.9% in 2024 compared to 2023. The used-car market in Poland stabilized towards the end of 2024, but the timing of used-van sales was highly variable, indicating an unstable economic situation.
Among different powertrains, battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) saw the greatest rate of depreciation in 2024. However, the market for these used electric models is currently slow. In contrast, the A, B, and B-SUV segments enjoyed the lowest rate of depreciation in the used-car market, and used vehicles up to 2.5 years and those over 7.5 years lost the least value in 2024.
Exports from Poland have decreased, with little interest in used vehicles in Turkey, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. The low Euro exchange rate made used cars from Poland less attractive on the international market. Demand for commercial vehicles in Poland is not yet stabilized, with large declines in values observed throughout the year and continuing in the fourth quarter. In the heavy commercial vehicle segment, diesel continued to dominate, with values falling steadily at the end of 2024.
In summary, Poland's car markets in 2025 face robust used car demand partly fuelled by imports and price sensitivity, while new car sales grow alongside consumer preference shifts and electrification efforts. The introduction of strict emission-related depreciation limits from 2026 will challenge combustion engine residual values and corporate fleet demand, promoting a pivot towards electric and hydrogen cars but also creating transitional burdens and planning complexities for businesses and market participants.
References: [1] Market Sizing and Trends: https://www.autonews.com/international-news/europe/used-car-market-poland-set-grow-26-57-billion-2025 [2] Emissions Regulations and Tax Treatment: https://www.gov.pl/web/mojauto/mojauto [3] CAFE Regulations: https://www.gov.pl/web/gospodarka/aktualnosci/nowe-regulacje-dotyczace-cene-spalania-sieciow-w-polsce [4] Consumer Preferences: https://www.autonews.com/international-news/europe/polish-suv-market-booming-surge-used-car-sales
Industries such as automotive and transportation are greatly influenced by the finance sector in Poland, given the projected growth of the used car market reaching USD 26.57 billion in 2025. Lifestyle preferences, notably the increasing popularity of SUVs, also impact the car markets, particularly in the used car segment. The forthcoming introduction of strict emission-related depreciation limits in 2026 is expected to create transitional challenges and complexities for businesses in the automotive industry, while promoting a shift towards electric and hydrogen cars.
