Crude oil prices tumble by $2 per barrel due to concerns over OPEC+-related supply and upcoming US employment figures.
In a virtual meeting, OPEC and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, have agreed to increase oil production by approximately 547,000 barrels per day in September 2025. This decision marks the sixth consecutive month of production rises as OPEC+ unwinds pandemic-era voluntary cuts.
The production hike is part of a phased restoration of around 2.2 million barrels per day of supply withheld since 2023. The increase will apply to eight member countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.
While some sources have reported a figure of 548,000 barrels per day, the precise figure stated in OPEC’s press release and most reports is 547,000 barrels per day. The previous month, August, saw an increase of 548,000 barrels per day, so the September adjustment is slightly lower.
OPEC+ has noted that further increases might be paused or reversed depending on market conditions to maintain oil market stability. This production hike is also seen as a move to fully restore the output cuts agreed in November 2023 ahead of schedule.
Meanwhile, the global oil market has been affected by various factors. Brent crude saw a weekly gain near 6%, driven in part by Trump's threats to impose tariffs on U.S. trading partners. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude followed suit, with a weekly gain of 6.29%.
The weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report in July, which saw the national unemployment rate rise to 4.2%, has stoked concern over potential disruption to oil trade flows and the removal of some oil from the market. The U.S. added 73,000 jobs in July, lower than economists had forecast.
Tariff rates on U.S. trading partners will largely take effect from next Friday. JP Morgan analysts have suggested that Trump's threatened penalties on China and India over their purchases of Russian oil potentially put 2.75 million barrels per day of Russian seaborne oil exports at risk. Trump has also threatened to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russian crude buyers as a means to pressure Russia into halting its war in Ukraine.
However, the resolution of trade deals has been a key driver for oil price bullishness in recent days, according to Suvro Sarkar at DBS Bank. The Federal Reserve voted to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Partners that managed to secure trade agreements with the U.S. include the European Union, South Korea, Japan, and Great Britain.
Discussions on production volume are ongoing, and the hike could be smaller, according to a fourth source. The world's second and third-largest crude consumers, China and India, are closely watching these developments.
In summary, the global oil market is experiencing volatility due to a combination of factors, including OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical tensions, and trade disputes. As always, these factors will continue to shape the market in the coming months.
- The increase in oil production by OPEC+, specifically 547,000 barrels per day in September 2025, is a strategic move within the trading industry, aiming to restore the output cuts agreed upon in 2023 and maintain oil market stability.
- Amidst ongoing discussions, the global oil-and-gas industry (specifically China and India) is closely monitoring the potential for further adjustments to OPEC+ production volumes, as geopolitical tensions and trade disputes continue to have a significant impact on the market's future.
