Decline observed in the mortgage market within the Tomsk region
In a surprising turn of events, the mortgage market in Tomsk Oblast has witnessed a significant decline over the past five months of 2025. According to recent data, the region issued 12.3 mortgage loans per 1000 economically active residents, which is 8% lower than the national average of 13.4 loans.
This downturn in mortgage issuance comes after a period of stable growth in 2024. The decline has been particularly noticeable when compared to neighbouring regions such as Kemerovo Oblast, which issued 11.2 loans per 1000 economically active residents, and Krasnoyarsk Krai, which matched the national average of 13.4 loans.
While the exact cause of this decrease in Tomsk Oblast is not yet clear, some contextual insights can be inferred from broader Russian economic and financial trends. The discussion about IT companies facing increased loan rates and being moved from preferential to standard rates as of November 2023 suggests a broader tightening of credit conditions in Russia that could also affect mortgage issuance.
Additionally, government measures to regulate bank lending limits and optimize credit distribution might indirectly reduce mortgage availability. The mention of banks reaching lending limits early in the year and needing to optimise loan issuance hints at systemic constraints on lending capacity.
Despite the decrease, Tomsk residents still face challenges in affording homes. It is reported that they need to save for nearly 4 years to afford a 60-square-meter apartment.
The decline in Tomsk Oblast's mortgage market has been substantial, with a 54% decrease in mortgage issuance compared to the previous period. This decrease in activity has also been observed when compared to the national average in the period from June 2024 to June 2025.
Further official regional economic or banking reports would be required for a precise explanation of the decline in Tomsk Oblast's mortgage market. However, it appears that the region's mortgage market has cooled significantly since June 2024, and the trends suggest a continuation of this cooling into the future.
Businesses and real-estate investors in Tomsk Oblast may face challenges due to the decline in mortgage issuance witnessed over the past five months in 2025, as this could negatively impact the overall economic growth of the region. The tightening of credit conditions, as indicated by the increase in loan rates for IT companies and government measures to regulate bank lending, could be contributing factors to this trend.
