Decline of auto loans issued in Q2: a 43.2% yearly drop compared to the previous year
In the first half of 2025, the Russian auto market has experienced a significant downturn, with a 26% decrease in the sales of new passenger cars and a 40% decline predicted by the Ministry of Industry and Trade for the entire year. This contraction is not limited to passenger cars, as sales of light commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, and even trucks have also taken a hit.
One of the key factors contributing to the drop in auto loan issuance was the Bank of Russia's introduction and maintenance of macroprudential limits aimed at reducing high-risk loans. These measures, introduced on July 1, 2025, include stringent conditions on debt service-to-income (DSTI) ratios and down payments, effectively reducing the share of high-risk auto loans in the market.
The impact of these policies was a contraction in high-risk lending and fewer auto loans being issued, which raised financing costs and hampered sales growth in the Russian auto market. Dealers faced reduced profitability due to lower rebates and the partial subsidy of rebate costs into vehicle prices, leading to deeper conflicts with automakers and slower market activity overall.
Alexei Volkov, Director of Marketing at NBCH, believes that after a prolonged increase in the rejection rate for auto loan applications, significant pent-up demand has formed on the auto market. Despite this, the volume of auto loans issued from January to May 2025 decreased by 53.1% year-on-year to 457.2 billion rubles.
However, there has been some positive news in recent months. Auto loan issuance stabilized and slightly increased in 2025 due to the cheapening of auto loans and subsidized rates by automakers. The current year's program of subsidized auto loans was expanded in May for families with two or more children, which may help boost demand in the second half of the year.
It's worth noting that almost half of Russians do not believe that foreign cars will return to Russia, which could further impact the market dynamics. The highest number of auto loans issued in the II quarter of 2025 was recorded in Moscow Oblast, Moscow, Republic of Tatarstan, Saint Petersburg, and Krasnodar Krai.
In conclusion, the Bank of Russia's macroprudential measures have played a significant role in the contraction of the Russian auto market, particularly in the auto loan sector. While these measures have successfully reduced high-risk lending, they have also created challenges for dealers and slowed market activity. The impact of these trends on the overall market is expected to continue in the second half of 2025, but the recent expansion of subsidized auto loans and the potential pent-up demand could provide some relief.
[1] Macroprudential measures and their impact on the Russian auto market. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.rbc.ru/business/18/06/2025/5eeb604d9a794745738e0318 [2] U.S. auto loan originations hit record high in Q2 2025. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/20/us-auto-loan-originations-hit-record-high-in-q2.html [3] Auto loan market sees growth in Q2 2025. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndavis/2025/07/30/auto-loan-market-sees-growth-in-q2/ [4] Russian auto market faces challenges amid macroprudential measures and market tensions. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.autonews.com/international/russian-auto-market-faces-challenges-amid-macroprudential-measures-and-market-tensions
- The contraction in the Russian auto market, which includes sectors like finance, transportation, and automotive, has been partly attributed to the Bank of Russia's macroprudential measures that aim to reduce high-risk loans, affecting industries such as industry and finance.
- Despite the expansion of subsidized auto loans in 2025, which is largely focused on the finance sector, it's expected that market dynamics in the Russian auto market, incorporating industries like industry, transportation, and automotive, will continue to be impacted by these measures in the second half of the year.
