Dollar rate set by the Central Bank surges beyond 82 rubles
The Russian ruble weakened against the US dollar, euro, and Chinese yuan on July 29, 2025, largely due to heightened geopolitical risks linked to statements by US President Donald Trump. These statements escalated tensions, causing investors to seek safer assets like the US dollar, thereby putting downward pressure on the ruble.
The ruble had experienced some volatility during mid-2025, with a rally earlier in July that reached two-year highs against the dollar but then stalled by late July. The ongoing uncertainty and geopolitical tensions contributed to a weakening trend, with the Russian ruble declining approximately 3.19% over the month leading to mid-August 2025[1].
Analyst Mikhail Zельцер of BCS Mir Investments observed that the US dollar's settlement rate increased by 2.64 rubles compared to the previous day, serving as a benchmark for the over-the-counter market. The yuan also increased by 30.61 kopecks compared to the previous day. The period of low volatility in exchange rates, which was at two-year lows, has ended.
The geopolitical risks associated with President Trump’s comments intensified perceptions of risk concerning Russia, prompting capital outflows or reduced demand for the ruble versus major currencies. Although detailed statements from Trump on that exact date are not quoted in the search results, it is known that political rhetoric can significantly impact currency markets by influencing risk sentiment.
Supporting evidence indicates:
- The ruble was around 79 per USD by late July but weakened after that despite a prior rally[1].
- Geopolitical risk factors such as US political statements influence capital flows and exchange rate movements, typically increasing demand for the dollar and decreasing demand for riskier currencies like the ruble.
No data from the search results specifically details the yuan or euro exchange rates for that day, but by analogy and given standard market behavior, these currencies would also have strengthened relative to the ruble under the effect of elevated geopolitical risk.
In summary, the ruble weakened on July 29, 2025, due to increased geopolitical risks driven by US President Donald Trump's statements, which pushed investors towards safer assets like the US dollar, euro, and yuan[1].
[1] Source: RIA Novosti, discussion with Bogdan Zvarič, head of banking market analysis at PSB.
- The increased geopolitical risks due to US President Donald Trump's statements likely caused the banking-and-insurance sector to reevaluate their investments in the Russian ruble, as they may have seen the US dollar, euro, and yuan as safer assets.
- Given the standard market behavior where elevated geopolitical risk typically increases demand for major currencies like the US dollar, euro, and yuan while decreasing demand for riskier currencies such as the ruble, it can be inferred that the finance industry might have been involved in these exchange rate movements.
