Greenhouse Gases: Germany Faces a Rocky Road to Climate Goals Amid Economic Woes
Struggling Economy Deters Germany from Pursuing Climate Change Agenda - Economy struggling in Germany, potentially leading to insufficient action against climate change
Germany may only scratch the surface of its 2030 climate targets, warn experts. In normal economic circumstances, things would be different, said Hans-Martin Henning, chairman of the so-called Expert Council on Climate Issues, in Berlin.
The economy's winning streak has taken a hit courtesy of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic downturn.
"Without the savings account we've been building up in recent years, say, from the pandemic and the weak economy, there would have been a high probability of a significant financial overspend by the end of 2030," Henning explained. The German Climate Protection Act outlines how much greenhouse gases Germany may release annually between 2020 and 2030. The sum of these yearly emissions is the emission budget, which currently stays within the acceptable range, according to the Expert Council.
Yet, it's unlikely that Germany will meet its overarching goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 65% by 2030 compared to 1990. Germany aims to reach carbon neutrality by 2045, but experts foresee a wide margin in missing this goal.
Germany risks falling short of European targets as well
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According to European agreements, Germany must halve its emissions by 2030 compared to 2005. Since last year, Germany has strayed from the path to meet this target, according to calculations by the Expert Council. The 2030 target has been raised compared to the previous year.
The Expert Council is an independent, five-member body that examines the effectiveness of German climate protection policies and provides recommendations to the government. Its duties are legally defined. In its latest report, the council largely conforms to the figures presented by the Federal Environment Agency in March.
Germany faces economic and sectoral challenges in meeting its climate targets:
- Industrial sector struggles with high electricity costs, leading to job losses, reduced wealth, and slowed tax revenue. High electricity prices may have helped reduce emissions, but they have also impeded economic recovery.
- The economic downturn has, unintentionally, boosted Germany's ability to meet some climate targets; however, this comes at the expense of economic stability and growth.
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in reduced emissions due to decreased economic activity between 2021 and 2024. Without this buffer, Germany could face substantial difficulties in meeting its climate targets by 2030.
The transportation and buildings sectors (notably heating) continue to emit more CO2 than intended, potentially jeopardizing the 2030 targets if not addressed.
Hurdles persist in transitioning away from coal and gas, specifically in the heating and mobility sectors. More ambitious measures are needed to ensure these sectors meet the 2030 targets.
The need for more effective policy instruments, such as strengthening the EU emissions trading system and implementing stronger carbon pricing, is evident. Long-term climate goals require comprehensive plans, extending through 2040, built upon the current strategies.
Overall, while Germany has made some progress in reducing emissions, it still faces substantial economic and sectoral challenges that must be addressed to meet its climate targets.
- The Expert Council, an independent body that examines the effectiveness of German climate protection policies, has expressed concern that Germany may not meet its climate targets, as the economy's challenges and the COVID-19 pandemic have made it difficult to adhere to the commitments, highlighting the need for more effective policy instruments like strengthening the EU emissions trading system and implementing stronger carbon pricing.
- In light of Germany's 2030 climate targets and the goals set by European agreements, environmental-science experts and the Expert Council have stressed the importance of focusing on sectors like transportation and buildings (specifically heating) that continue to emit more CO2 than planned, as well as persisting challenges in transitioning away from coal and gas, especially in the heating and mobility sectors, requiring more ambitious measures to ensure these sectors meet their 2030 targets and long-term climate goals through comprehensive plans extending through 2040.
