Germany once more surpasses its heat pump installation goal with notable magnitude.
Germany once more surpasses its heat pump installation goal with notable magnitude.
The pursuit of CO2 neutrality in the country relies heavily on heat pumps, with a large quantity necessary to achieve this goal. As per the "traffic light coalition," six million heat pumps are aimed to be installed by 2030, which equates to half a million units sold annually. Regrettably, this target has not been met for the third consecutive year.
As reported by "Handelsblatt," around 500,000 new heat pumps are unlikely to be installed this year, continuing the trend of underperforming the annual sales target set by Economics Minister Robert Habeck in 2022. Statistics from the ministry and the heating industry indicate that installation numbers will fall short once more in 2022 and 2023.
From January to October, as per the "Handelsblatt" and the Federal Association of the German Heating Industry (BDH), only 162,500 heat pumps were sold in Germany. This represents a significant decline of almost 50% compared to the previous year.
As of the end of November this year, as per the Ministry of Economics, around 172,000 applications for the state promotional bank KfW's financial aid to replace heating systems were submitted. The BDH estimates that around 200,000 heat pumps will be sold by the end of the year. Although 236,000 units were sold in 2022 and a record of 356,000 was achieved in the previous year, these figures still fall short of the government's target.
Boosting production
Habeck aims to elevate the number of heat pumps in Germany to six million by 2030, with the current total below two million. After assuming office in 2021, Habeck and Minister of Housing Klara Geywitz of the SPD have convened several "heat pump summits," inviting representatives from the heating industry.
Habeck and Geywitz urged the industry representatives to substantially enhance their production capacities for heat pumps to facilitate the planned "heat transition," aiming for a climate-neutral built environment. Since a substantial amount of energy is utilized in the building sector, heat pumps are expected to make a substantial contribution to the country's CO2 neutrality.
The federal government established a legal framework for this transition with the revised Building Energy Act (GEG). As of January 1, 2024, new heating systems must be powered by at least 65% renewable energy sources. However, the law was a subject of repeated controversy, and due to the prolonged uncertain situation, many consumers opted for gas or oil heating systems.
I'm not disappointed in the industry's response to the urge for production increase, but I'm not going to consider the current rate of heat pump sales sufficient to meet our 2030 goal. Even with the increased production capacities and incentives, we need to accelerate the sales to stay on track towards CO2 neutrality.