In 2023, Digital forces propel Intermex over obstacles faced by Mexico
Intermex, a leading player in cross-border payments, has reported its financial results for Q4 2023 and provided a forecast for 2024.
In Q4 2023, Intermex's revenues increased by 11% to $171.8 million, and the EBITDA margin stood at 19.4%. This marked an impressive rise in Adjusted EBITDA, which climbed by 14.5% to $33.3 million compared to Q4 2022.
For the full year 2023, Intermex's adjusted EBITDA rose by 14% to $120 million. The company's total revenues for the year amounted to $658.7 million, a 20% increase from the previous year.
However, the company forecasts slower revenue growth in 2024, with a projected increase of 3-7%. This forecast is primarily due to a slowdown and subsequent decline in revenue growth starting in the second half of 2023 and continuing through 2024 and into 2025.
Intermex expects its revenues to range between $681 million and $702 million for 2024. This forecast is based on four consecutive quarters of revenue declines by mid-2025, including a 6% revenue drop in Q2 2025 and a 5% decline in the first half of 2025.
Additional factors contributing to the potential stock price decline include a drop in transaction counts by 7.8% year over year as of Q2 2025, despite an increase in average transaction size. This impacted revenue linked to fees from transactions.
Moreover, Intermex reported a revenue miss relative to analyst expectations in Q2 2025, with $161.1 million reported versus an expected $164.5 million. This was coupled with a 21.4% decrease in GAAP net income.
Market concerns about the impact of upcoming remittance taxes starting in 2026, regulatory and immigration law uncertainties, and competitive pressures in the remittance market also played a role in the stock price decline.
The announced acquisition by Western Union at $16 per share, although representing a roughly 50% premium over recent share prices, was still below earlier trading levels in 2024. This reflects market caution given the recent revenue declines and broader uncertainties about the business outlook and deal closing conditions.
For Q1 2024, Intermex predicts a revenue rise of 3-7% to a range of $150 million - $155 million.
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[1] Intermex Press Release: Q4 2023 and Full Year 2023 Results (link)
[2] MarketWatch: Intermex Stock Plunges on Weak Q2 Earnings (link)
[3] Yahoo Finance: Intermex Q2 2023 Earnings Miss Estimates (link)
[4] Bloomberg: Western Union to Acquire Intermex for $16 Per Share (link)
[5] Seeking Alpha: Intermex Stock Plummets on Q2 2025 Earnings Miss (link)
Intermex's forecast for 2024 suggests a slower revenue growth, with an increase of 3-7%, indicating potential changes in its business strategy for investing. The company's predicted revenue range for 2024, between $681 million and $702 million, demonstrates the impact of various factors such as remittance taxes, regulations, and competition on its finance.
