Increase in used diesel prices due to shortage of new car stock
In the first half of 2025, the number of new diesel cars registered has decreased by 11.3% compared to the previous year. This shift is due to automakers focusing on building vehicles that comply with government policies favouring electric and alternative-powertrain cars, rather than diesel models.
Despite the declining new diesel car volumes, some used diesel cars are experiencing a surge in value. Models like the Honda HR-V and Mercedes CLS have appreciated significantly, with year-on-year increases of around 10-12%. This unusual trend is attributed to persistent consumer demand for diesel vehicles, combined with a reduced supply of new diesel vehicles.
The used car market for diesel vehicles is experiencing wild valuation extremes. While some models are depreciating at higher than expected rates, others, like the Ford Mondeo, have seen their values rise by 6.5%.
Dylan Setterfield, head of forecast strategy at Cap HPI, expects prices of diesel cars to behave similarly to petrol car prices in the next few years. However, he also notes that the ongoing reduction in consumer demand will partially offset these increases.
The preference for diesel in the used market is driven by both consumers and dealers. Fuel economy is a significant factor for high-mileage drivers, especially given the practical needs of many who still prefer diesel for its fuel efficiency, torque, or other reasons despite the trend away from diesel in new-car markets.
Not all diesel models are performing equally well in the used market. Some, like the Vauxhall Astra and Range Rover Evoque, have seen their values decrease by 20.2% and 12.7% respectively. On the other hand, the Ssangyong Korando 2.2D has depreciated by 24.5%.
As the shift towards electric and alternative-powertrain vehicles continues, the used market for diesel cars is expected to remain volatile. However, for those in the market for a used diesel car, there may be opportunities for investment as some models continue to hold their value or even appreciate.
Sources: 1. Article 1 2. Article 2 3. Article 3
- Despite the decline in new diesel cars, some financial analysts predict an increase in the value of certain used diesel models like the Honda HR-V and Ford Mondeo, due to persistent consumer demand and reduced supply.
- In the used car market, the preference for diesel vehicles is driven by both consumers and dealers, with fuel economy being a significant factor for high-mileage drivers who still prefer diesel for its fuel efficiency or other reasons, despite the trend away from diesel in new-car markets.
- As the industry moves towards electric and alternative-powertrain vehicles, maintenance costs for diesel cars may become more prominent in the lifestyle considerations of potential buyers, which could potentially impact the car-maintenance costs of diesel models in the used market.
