Increased U.S. tariffs have heavily impacted the provinces of Florence, Milan, and Trieste the hardest
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In the first quarter of 2025, several Italian provinces faced potential losses due to US tariffs, according to the latest Istat provincial quarterly data analysis. The provinces most affected by these tariffs are expected to be Florence, Milan, Trieste, Modena, Rome, L'Aquila, Bologna, Vicenza, Frosinone, and Bergamo.
The potential loss for Trieste due to tariffs was a staggering 366 million euros in the first quarter of 2025. This significant figure is largely attributed to the fact that US exports accounted for 42% of total foreign sales in Trieste. With tariffs at 10%, the possible loss for Trieste would have been a third, but with a reduction to 15%, the loss would have been halved.
Other provinces predicted to be significantly impacted by US tariffs include Modena, Rome, L'Aquila, Bologna, Vicenza, Frosinone, and Bergamo. The potential losses for these provinces are not yet quantified, but given their high dependence on US trade, it is expected that they will experience notable effects.
The provinces of L'Aquila, Bologna, Vicenza, Frosinone, and Bergamo are also among those expected to experience significant effects from US tariffs. The exact losses for these provinces are not yet known, but they are likely to be substantial given their high export exposure and industrial composition.
However, not all provinces were equally affected. The negative impact on Caltanissetta, Crotone, Oristano, Cosenza, and Viterbo was less than a million euros in the first quarter of 2025. These provinces, which are less dependent on US trade or focused on local/domestic markets, may have been less affected or largely shielded from the impact of US tariffs.
The US introduced several tariffs throughout early 2025, targeting products that Italy might export or compete with. These tariffs put pressure on Italy's economy, contributing to a slight negative growth in Q1 and Q2 2025. Despite this, the Euro area as a whole experienced resilience, with private consumption partially offsetting export-related drag.
As of late July 2025, the EU and US were reported to be moving toward a trade agreement that might set a broad 15% tariff on EU imports. This development could alter the tariff landscape and influence tariff impacts going forward.
In summary, the impact of US tariffs in Q1 2025 on Italian provinces was uneven, with export-dependent provinces likely suffering losses while others remained relatively stable. This contributed to an overall slight negative growth in Italy amid broader Euro area resilience. For exact figures on the losses per province, one would need access to Italian customs and regional economic data post-Q1 2025 from institutions like Istat or sector-specific trade reports.
The potential losses for export-dependent Italian provinces, such as Modena, Rome, L'Aquila, Bologna, Vicenza, Frosinone, and Bergamo, could be substantial due to their high dependence on US trade, indicating a significant financial impact. As a result, managing and mitigating these losses may require an infusion of energy and resources from the Italian government and affected communities.
If the upcoming EU-US trade agreement lowers tariffs to 15%, it could potentially reduce the losses predicted for several Italian provinces, offering hope for a more balanced energy distribution in the economy.
