Kazakhstan investigates potential oil export path through Baku-Supsa Railway
Kazakhstan is considering the Baku-Supsa pipeline corridor as a potential new route for its oil exports, aiming to diversify its energy supply channels and enhance operational independence. The corridor, which has a capacity of about 5 to 6 million tons per year, offers an alternative to Russia-dominated routes.
The potential transportation of Kazakhstan's crude oil through the Baku-Supsa pipeline corridor is under evaluation. The Economic Ministry of Kazakhstan has provided information about this potential route to the LS Aqparat news agency. The establishment of agreements between relevant economic entities will be a determining factor in the development of this new oil export route.
Economically, the corridor provides access to European markets via Georgia’s Black Sea ports, which are strategically close to European refineries. This makes it a valuable export path given rising geopolitical tensions and export disruptions through Russia. Kazakhstan shipped approximately 750,000 tons of oil through the Baku-Supsa pipeline in the first half of 2025, targeting 1.7 million tons by year-end, signalling growing operational deployment and economic feasibility.
However, operational efficiency is currently constrained by several issues. The pipeline was idle since spring 2022 and requires reopening and possible modernization to handle increased flows. Additionally, blending Kazakh heavy crude with Azeri sources is necessary for compatibility, and Kazakhstan faces competition from discounted Russian oil in regional markets, potentially limiting throughput and pricing power.
The impact on Kazakhstan’s oil export routes is significant. By reducing Kazakhstan’s dependence on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline and Russia’s Novorossiysk port for Black Sea exports, the corridor offers a viable and politically safer alternative to Russian-controlled corridors. It also complements other alternative routes like the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, offering geographic redundancy and access to Mediterranean and European markets, increasing Kazakhstan’s export flexibility and security.
Moreover, the route aligns with broader geopolitical interests of the EU and US to reduce Central Asia’s transit dependency on Russia, and opens the door for increased trade in other strategic commodities like uranium via Georgia.
In summary, the Baku-Supsa pipeline corridor is an economically attractive and strategically important route for Kazakhstan's oil exports. It improves operational efficiency through diversification while impacting Kazakhstan’s export landscape by providing a viable and politically safer alternative to Russian-controlled corridors. However, its full potential depends on infrastructure revitalization and overcoming technical blending and competition challenges.
Notably, Hungary is set to receive its first shipment of Kazakh oil, with a total of 85,000 tons to be delivered to the Százhalombatta refinery. This move further solidifies the Baku-Supsa pipeline corridor as a promising new oil export route for Kazakhstan.
The Baku-Supsa pipeline corridor presents an opportunity for Kazakhstan to transport its oil, offering access to European markets via Georgia’s Black Sea ports and providing a viable and politically safer alternative to Russian-controlled routes. This potential route, which aligns with broader geopolitical interests of the EU and US, also complements other alternative routes like the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, enhancing Kazakhstan’s export flexibility and security in the oil-and-gas industry.
Furthermore, this corridor, with its capacity of about 5 to 6 million tons per year, could potentially lead to increased trade in other strategic commodities like uranium via Georgia, as Kazakhstan seeks to diversify its finance and energy supply channels. This strategic move is demonstrated by Hungary's decision to receive its first shipment of Kazakh oil, signaling a growing potential for the Baku-Supsa pipeline corridor within the finance industry.
