Kazakhstan residents' interest in US dollars appears to be waning, as suggested by financial analysts.
In the heart of Central Asia, Kazakhstan's economy has been experiencing a mixed bag of fortunes. While some regions have seen a surge in economic activity, others have contracted, leading to variations in dollar demand.
Regions like Astana, Turkestan, Shymkent, and Zhetysu have witnessed impressive growth, with Astana leading the pack at a staggering 22.5% increase in economic activity from January to July 2025. This growth indicates a higher demand for dollars due to strengthened economic activity. On the other hand, the East Kazakhstan and Ulytau regions have experienced contraction, with East Kazakhstan seeing a decline of 5.2% and Ulytau a decrease of 3.2% during the same period [3].
The Kazakhstani tenge (KZT) has depreciated sharply against the U.S. dollar over the past several months in 2025. The tenge weakened significantly, reaching a low of around KZT 550 per USD in late July 2025, before slightly stabilising to about KZT 540 per USD in early August 2025 [1]. This marked depreciation is a stark contrast to earlier 2025 levels, where the ceiling was around KZT 530.
The depreciation of the tenge is attributed to a combination of fundamental economic pressures. These include a shrinking trade surplus, rising domestic inflation, and geopolitical factors such as tariffs and sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russian and Kazakh goods [1][2].
Financial analysts anticipate the tenge to stabilise below KZT 530 to 550 for the foreseeable future, with continued fiscal and economic pressures likely preventing a recovery to earlier stronger levels [1].
The oil and gas-rich Mangystau region and Atyrau region have seen the most dollars bought, with 56.6 billion and 43.6 billion respectively. The most dollars were bought in exchange offices by residents of Almaty (201.2 billion tenge), followed by Shymkent (163.4 billion) and Nur-Sultan (60.4 billion) [4].
In summary:
| Region | Economic Activity 2025 (Jan-Jul) | Inferred Dollar Demand | |-------------------|---------------------------------|----------------------------------| | Astana | +22.5% | Higher demand | | Turkestan | +19.4% | Higher demand | | Shymkent | +19.4% | Higher demand | | Zhetysu | +16.2% | Higher demand | | East Kazakhstan | -5.2% | Lowest demand | | Ulytau | -3.2% | Lowest demand |
| Indicator | Value / Range | Notes | |------------------------|------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------| | Exchange rate (USD/KZT) | Peaked at ~550 (late July 2025), now ~540 | Depreciated sharply since early 2025 | | Trade surplus | Fell from $9.5bn (Jan-May 2024) to $6bn (Jan-May 2025) | Reflects weaker exports and rising imports | | Key economic pressures | Inflation, trade imbalance, geopolitical uncertainty | Including U.S. tariffs and sanctions on Russian and Kazakh goods |
These findings shed light on the link between sub-regional economic contraction and lower dollar demand zones, as well as the recent trends in the tenge-dollar exchange rate [1][2][3].
For further reading, an article titled "Dollar at 543: What's Happening with the Tenge, Experts Explain" is available. The National Bank has also started implementing currency interventions, and the Prime Minister has stated that the tenge exchange rate is determined solely by market principles [4][5]. The demand for dollars in Kazakhstan has decreased by 25.8% compared to June last year, with $109.4 billion worth of dollars bought in exchange offices in June 2023 [6].
References:
- Kazakhstan's GDP Contracts as Economy Struggles
- Kazakhstan's Currency Tumbles as Trade Deficit Widens
- Regional Economic Activity in Kazakhstan: A Breakdown
- National Bank Intervenes to Stabilise the Tenge
- Prime Minister Speaks on the Tenge Exchange Rate
- Dollar Demand in Kazakhstan Decreases Significantly
Finance analysts predict that the depreciated Kazakhstani tenge (KZT) will continue to maintain a value between KZT 530 and 550 for the foreseeable future, as ongoing fiscal and economic pressures inhibit recovery to earlier stronger levels. Conversely, business activity has shown significant growth in regions like Astana, Turkestan, Shymkent, and Zhetysu, leading to a higher demand for dollars due to strengthened economic activity.
