Losses incurred by Russia amounting to more than $20 billion in the export of raw materials over a six-month span
In the first half of 2025, Russia's export landscape experienced a mix of gains and losses. A significant decline was seen in mineral product exports, primarily due to falling oil prices and the cessation of gas transit through Ukraine.
The price of Russian Urals crude oil fell from $67.7 per barrel in January to $59.8 per barrel in June, with US tariffs introduced in April further pushing global oil prices down. This resulted in a $21.3 billion decline in mineral product exports compared to the same period in 2024, which stood at $131.4 billion[1][4].
Other export categories showed varying trends. Food exports decreased by $3 billion, while chemical products, machinery, and equipment exports increased by an equivalent amount of $3 billion[1]. Metals exports rose by $4.2 billion, despite pressures such as sanctions impacting Russian metals firms like Rusal[1][5].
Coal exports to China, Russia’s largest coal market, declined sharply by 25% in volume terms, exacerbated by sanctions and shifts in Chinese energy import patterns[3][4]. On the other hand, precious metal exports to China surged significantly, with gold and silver exports jumping 80% to $1 billion. Prices for palladium and platinum increased by 38% and 59%, respectively, although production volumes dropped slightly year-on-year[2].
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has stated that the negative effects of tariff restrictions will continue to put pressure on prices in commodity markets. The fall in oil prices and the suspension of gas transit through Ukraine are likely to be the primary factors affecting the decrease in Russian mineral product exports. The tariff war initiated by Donald Trump is also considered a contributing factor to the drop in oil prices in early April[6].
Raw materials account for more than half of Russian exports, making up 56.3% in the first half of the year (62.9% a year ago)[7]. Notably, Reliance Industries, the owner of the world's largest oil refinery in Jamnagar, India, may abandon Russian oil due to geopolitical uncertainties[8].
In conclusion, Russia’s export profile in early 2025 shows a marked decline in mineral/raw material exports driven by lower oil prices and disrupted gas transit, while some other sectors like metals and chemicals have seen gains. Coal exports face steep challenges, whereas precious metal exports to China have notably increased due to higher prices and geopolitical shifts favoring China as a market[1][2][3][4][5].
[1] Source: Russian Federal Customs Service [2] Source: Russian Gold Industry Association [3] Source: China National Coal Association [4] Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) [5] Source: Reuters [6] Source: Wall Street Journal [7] Source: Russian Ministry of Economic Development [8] Source: Bloomberg
