Oil economics organization OPEC unveils "World Oil Outlook 2025" during Vienna symposium
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is set to release its latest forecasts on the global oil market next week, with the highly anticipated World Oil Outlook 2025 report. First launched in 2007, this annual publication is one of OPEC's most prominent, offering a detailed analysis of the global oil and energy landscape.
The key findings and predictions in the World Oil Outlook 2025 regarding global oil market developments, supply and demand trends, and energy sector challenges and opportunities are as follows:
Global Oil Demand Growth: OPEC projects global oil demand to increase by approximately 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year in 2025 and 2026, driven by stronger-than-expected economic activity particularly in Asia. This demand growth is moderate but positive in both years.
Oil Supply Trends: OPEC expects a steady rise in oil supply throughout 2025 into 2026. However, independent analyses, such as from the International Energy Agency (IEA), forecast that the increase in global oil supply—led largely by non-OPEC producers—is likely to outpace demand growth, with supply rising by around 1.8 mb/d to about 104.9 mb/d in 2025, followed by a smaller increase in 2026. This could result in an increasing oil inventory buildup, signaling potential oversupply.
Market Price Dynamics: OPEC notes falling oil prices alongside strong demand growth, especially in Asia, pointing to a complex market balance where supply growth and demand are both robust but price pressures remain downward.
Demand Plateau and Long-Term Outlook: While near-term demand growth is expected, longer-term forecasts predict demand will plateau around 2027 and then slightly decline by 2030, mainly due to weaker economic growth and a shift away from oil in transportation and power generation sectors. This reflects the beginning impact of energy transition dynamics globally.
Geopolitical and Regional Influences: Demand growth is highly influenced by major consumers, particularly the United States and China, which together account for about one-third of global demand. Changes in these economies and their energy policies significantly impact global trends. On the supply side, the U.S. has contributed most growth historically, but its production growth is slowing due to economic and geological constraints.
Challenges and Opportunities: - Challenges: OPEC faces criticism for potentially optimistic demand projections, as some experts warn that supply will substantially outpace demand, leading to market imbalances and financial pressures on the oil industry. The energy transition and climate policies also pose long-term demand challenges. - Opportunities: The ongoing demand growth in emerging markets, especially in Asia, and the need for stable oil supplies could provide market opportunities. The sector may also find openings in balancing traditional oil production with emerging energy transitions.
The World Oil Outlook 2025 report will be presented during a special session held as part of an international symposium at the Hofburg Palace in Vienna, Austria. The event, being reported by Al-Jarida daily, will include a panel discussion featuring directors and analysts from the OPEC Secretariat's Research Department. OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais will give an opening address at the event. The panel discussion will highlight the main findings of the World Oil Outlook 2025 report and explore critical issues such as oil supply and demand trends, sustainability goals in the global energy sector, and the challenges and opportunities facing the global energy sector. The symposium is scheduled for July 9-10.
The World Oil Outlook 2025 report from OPEC, set to be presented next week, expects the oil industry to face financial pressures due to potential market imbalances, as supply growth may outpace demand, particularly in non-OPEC producing countries. Moreover, the energy sector will encounter long-term challenges from the ongoing energy transition and climate policies, offering opportunities for balancing traditional oil production with emerging energy transitions, particularly in Asia.