Projected Oil Prices: August 2025 to July 2026 Forecast
Several major energy agencies, including the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC, and oil market expert Dr. Gil Feiler, have released their forecasts for the oil price trajectory in the latter half of 2025 (H2 2025) and mid-2026.
Dr. Gil Feiler's Outlook
Dr. Gil Feiler, a renowned oil market expert, typically emphasises a moderate to slight increase or stabilisation in prices, assuming no major geopolitical shocks. His projections generally reflect cautious optimism with tight supply considerations, with potential prices ranging from $70 to $90 per barrel.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
The EIA projects that Light Sweet Crude (WTI) will fluctuate generally between $70 and $85 per barrel through late 2025 into mid-2026. Prices are expected to moderately rise if global demand stays firm, with adjustments influenced by OPEC+ production strategy. The EIA assumes steady global economic growth and no major supply disruptions.
International Energy Agency (IEA)
The IEA forecasts moderate price increases or a steady range around $75 to $90 per barrel for Brent crude through 2025 and mid-2026. Prices are sensitive to geopolitical tensions, inventory levels, and investment in production capacity. The IEA underscores risks from both demand-side concerns (economic slowdown) and supply-side constraints.
OPEC
OPEC traditionally targets a balanced market with prices in a range supporting their budgetary needs, often around $70-$80 per barrel. Their baseline outlook for H2 2025 and mid-2026 suggests prices stabilising or gently rising if demand grows and production adherence is maintained.
Summary of Projected Price Range
| Source | Projected Price Range (per barrel) | |----------------|----------------------------------------| | Dr. Gil Feiler | Approximately $70 - $90 | | EIA | $70 - $85 (WTI) | | IEA | $75 - $90 (Brent) | | OPEC | $70 - $80 (Brent, baseline outlook) |
Key Factors Influencing These Projections
- OPEC+ production policies and compliance
- Global economic growth and energy demand recovery post-pandemic
- Geopolitical developments (e.g., Middle East tensions, Russia-Ukraine impacts)
- Investments in new oil production and global inventory levels
- Adoption of alternative energy sources affecting long-term demand
For more specific numerical projections and direct quotes from Dr. Gil Feiler, please refer to their most recent reports or market commentaries closer to these time frames. The projections do not detail the exact nature of the subdued demand forecast, geopolitical risk episodes, or the exact reasons for the expected softening in global demand fundamentals.
The oil markets are experiencing a phase of moderate fundamentals, with a gradual shift toward a mild oversupply environment expected, especially as inventory builds resume later in 2025. Short-term volatility, such as prices reaching USD 80-100, is possible due to conflict escalation, but the prevailing trend suggests gradual price compression.
- Dr. Gil Feiler's projected oil prices of $70 to $90 per barrel assume no major geopolitical shocks, with potential prices ranging within this band.
- The EIA predicts that the price of Light Sweet Crude (WTI) will fluctuate between $70 and $85 per barrel in the latter half of 2025 and mid-2026, depending on OPEC+ production strategy and global economic growth.
- The IEA projects moderate price increases or a steady range around $75 to $90 per barrel for Brent crude, keeping in mind geopolitical tensions, inventory levels, and production capacity investment.
- OPEC's baseline outlook suggests that oil prices will stabilize or gently rise in the range of $70-$80 per barrel for Brent crude if demand grows and production adherence is maintained.
- The combination of factors like OPEC+ production policies, global economic growth, geopolitical developments, investments in new oil production, and alternative energy adoption all play key roles in influencing these oil price projections.
