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Fresh Take:
Real Estate Market Shifts in Russia's Major Cities
In the ever-evolving Russian real estate landscape, some intriguing changes are unfolding in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and the Moscow region.
Moscow and Moscow Region's Resale Premium Decreasing
The demand for reselling apartments in new buildings has taken a downturn in Moscow, with owners now willing to accept a mere 1% premium of the original price – a stark contrast to the 10% seen a year ago. This would mean that owners in the Moscow region are even more willing to sell at a 3% discount. This trend has emerged as a result of decreased demand due to targeted subsidized loan issuance, as stated by Andrei Sado, managing partner of Penny Lane Realty. The high supply environment has made it essential for sellers to lower their prices to catch buyers' eyes, according to "Наш.Дом.РФ" information system.
St. Petersburg: A Look at Trends
Although specific data about recent trends in St. Petersburg's real estate market is limited in the sources provided, it seems that the city may follow the general trend of reduced activity in the resale market and cautious demand for new developments.
Insights: The secondary market in both Moscow and New Moscow has seen a reduction in listings – by 17.2% and 20.5% respectively – over the past year, suggesting a decrease in supply that could support prices despite the market slowdown.
Moscow Region – A Closer Look at Developer Prices
The Moscow region, including New Moscow, continues to see a decline in new housing pre-sales, with buyer interest also on the decline, similar to Moscow.
The Way Forward for Developers
The difference between resale and developer prices may increase by the end of 2025, possibly due to the expansion of the family mortgage program, which could slightly stimulate demand for primary housing. However, reduced demand and continued pricing and discount strategies by developers may result in a decrease in the gap between prices.
Additional Insights: Despite rising home prices and concerns about a potential real estate bubble, up to 50% of purchases in the first four months of 2025 occurred in mid-construction projects, indicating some demand for new housing.
Decreased Housing Supply
Russian developers introduced significantly less new housing to the market in May 2025, with a 28% decrease year-on-year, according to state company "Dom.RF." This decline, the lowest figure in five years, is due to developers trying to sell apartments by offering installment plans, but sales levels remain insufficient to encourage increased supply, explains Mikhail Goldberg, head of the analytical center at "Dom.RF." Under a pessimistic scenario, the volume of new housing supply in 2025 could be around 30 million sq.m, significantly lower than previous years.
Finance experts predict an increase in the gap between resale and developer prices in the Moscow region by the end of 2025, due to the expansion of the family mortgage program potentially stimulating demand for primary housing. However, the decreased housing supply – with new housing offerings down by 28% year-on-year – may counteract this trend, leading to a decrease in the gap between prices instead.
Investing in real estate in St. Petersburg may follow the general trend of reduced activity in the resale market and cautious demand for new developments, although specific data is limited at this time. The housing-market slowdown in Moscow and the Moscow region, as evidenced by decreased listings and dwindling buyer interest, couldpersist as developers continue to offer incentives such as installment plans, despite the lower supply volumes.
