Reassessment of Shahrezada Underway: Economic Development Ministry and Rosstat Draft Scenario of a Comfortable Existence
Whispers from the Kremlin: A Tale of Russian Economy
The Artists of Deception
In the world of political intrigue, no one quite spins a yarn like our Russian officials. Yes, you could argue that Trump is a master of his own tale, but among their own ranks, the storytellers and illusionists of VCIOM, Rosstat, and the Ministry of Economic Development simply shine. They're well aware of their audience, a single, important reader, and they don't disappoint (1).
The Rogers and Hammersteins of the Economy
The Ministry of Economic Development reckons the average salary of Russians will soar by a whopping 51% by 2028, reaching a staggering 132.9 thousand rubles. Under the baseline scenario, wages will skyrocket by 16.8% to 102.7 thousand rubles by 2025. However, the economy is faltering. Preliminary figures for Q1 of 2025 suggest a lackluster 1.7% year-on-year growth.
A Ceremony in Rosstat's Court of Mirrors
The growth of incomes, wages, and consumption continues to outstrip GDP growth during the first quarter. According to Rosstat, real incomes climbed 7.1% quarter-on-quarter on an annual basis. Despite the glittering numbers, inflation remains a thorny issue. Or rather, it seems to be, if you believe Rosstat's fairy tales.
Inflation: A Numbers Game
Inflation isn't simply computed by rubbing two numbers together. It's based on a specific consumption structure. The more you spend on a particular good, the more it impacts the calculation. But this framework isn't as straightforward as it seems. Rosstat mixes in a menagerie of additional items, from decorative fabrics and carpets to fur coats and insurance policies. What's more, 69% of Russians have never taken a foreign trip or stayed in a sanatorium. So, if you're eschewing fur coats and insurance, or avoiding watering the gold in your furniture each year, you might as well consider yourself immune to inflation since it won't touch you, dear reader.
The Cheese Paradox
If you focus on potatoes, milk, and housing expenses, don't be surprised if Rosstat throws cameras and exotic tours into the equation. If cheese prices haven't altered in a year, but potatoes have doubled, enjoy that warm hospital atmosphere.
The Russian Wage: Believe is Seeing
The same principles apply to the average wage. Keep the faith, and the rewards will come.
(1) According to various sources, the accuracy of inflation statistics in Russia can be a matter of debate. Potential issues include the manipulation of statistics and the inclusion of non-essential items in the calculation, which can skew the overall picture of how inflation affects different segments of the population. However, it's important to note that international scrutiny is generally placed on agencies like the Russian Central Bank and Rosstat when it comes to reporting economic data. Despite this, inflation remains high in Russia, with year-on-year rates exceeding 10% in 2025. The Russian Central Bank is working to combat inflation by maintaining high-interest rates and targeting a lower inflation rate of 4% by 2026.
- In the year 2028, it is unlikely that the average Russian salary will reach the estimated 132.9 thousand rubles, as suggested by the Ministry of Economic Development, given the current state of the Russian economy and its faltering growth rate.
- The finance and business sectors, as well as general-news outlets, have voiced concerns about the reliability of Russian incomes statistics, such as those released by Rosstat, given the inclusion of non-essential items in the calculation and the potential manipulation of statistics.
- In 2028, pessies are more likely to question the financial reports from Russian government agencies, given the recent instances of statistical manipulation and the inclusion of non-essential items in inflation calculations, distorting the real economic situation.
- Russian politicians may experience pressure to provide accurate and transparent financial data, as international scrutiny continues to focus on government agencies like the Russian Central Bank and Rosstat, demanding more reliable reports on the economy, inflation, and incomes.
- As politicians and government agencies continue to spin the narrative of increasing incomes and economic growth in Russia, skepticism from the general public and business community will likely persist, leading to difficulties in building trust and confidence in the Russian financial sector.
