Record-low Shipping Activity predicted for North Baltic Canal in 2024, potential to rank among least productive years ever.
The Slump in the Kiel Canal's Traffic: A Rough Sail in Recent Years
The rugged shorelines of the Kiel Canal, a critical artery for international shipping, have witnessed a downturn in activity. For the first time in over seven decades, the canal didn't see over 25,000 ships pass through last year, painting a grim picture for the waterway's operators. Yet, there's a flicker of optimism on the horizon.
The annual audit by the General Directorate of Waterways and Shipping (GDWS) has been a delayed affair this year. Typically, the findings are shared with the public by mid-January or early February, but this time around, it seems like we'll have to wait until late February. The trends, however, are crystal clear. "We've noticed a significant dip in the number of ships sailing through the canal," says Jens-Broder Knudsen, authority figure at the Initiative Kiel Canal. Leading maritime firms like Sartori & Berger and UCA United Canal Agency report a drop of up to ten percent in ship traffic.
The Speed Bump in the Waterway's Procession
While 2024 could go down as one of the worst years ever for the canal, there's a glimmer of hope. "If the canal's expansion—as planned—sees completion, and the speed restrictions are lifted, we'll regain our allure for shipowners," promises Knudsen. Since July 2023, ships cruising along the canal have been obliged to slow down from 15 km/h to 12 km/h due to construction work meant to safeguard the canal's delicate banks. Thankfully, repairs to the banks are progressing, butthe threat of a three-month lock chamber closure in Brunsbüttel looms from May, where rails for gate bogies of a sliding gate need to be exchanged. "Such closures don't make things easy, but they're essential," says Knudsen.
The shipowners are quick to respond. "Then we'll resort to the route around Skagen again," says Knudsen, who doubles as the managing director of Sartori & Berger.
The Gradual Erosion of Ship Passages
The ebb and flow of vessels on the Kiel Canal has been on a steady decline for over a decade. In 2014, a whopping 32,600 ships still graced the canal. "One of the issues is that the average ship size is getting smaller," comments Knudsen. The fees for pilots commissioned to guide ships through the canal are based on this average ship size.
"We're feeling it hard. So far, there's been no sign of a reversal in the downward trend for this year," shares David-Christopher Müller, controller of the pilots' guild of the NOKII from Kiel. But, there's still reason to be hopeful. "If the canal's passage becomes foreseeable again, things could look very different," says Müller. "Reliability is of paramount importance for shipowners."
Meanwhile, the international shipping community eagerly awaits the unveiling of comprehensive traffic data for the canal. Alongside the number of ships, the quantities of cargo transported and the average size of the vessels carry immense significance. Preliminary indications suggest steep declines in all these aspects as well. The GDWS is still analyzing the data.
Overall, the decline in ship traffic through the Kiel Canal is a multifaceted issue tied to economic, environmental, and infrastructural factors. Addressing these challenges could help restore the canal's significance in the realm of international shipping.
- The decline in the Kiel Canal's ship traffic has extended to other sectors, with a notable reduction observed in the public transit and transportation industries, as fewer ships passing through the canal directly impacts the distribution of goods.
- The finance industry is also affected, as reduced ship traffic on the Kiel Canal could lead to a decrease in revenue for leading maritime firms such as Sartori & Berger and UCA United Canal Agency, resulting in a ripple effect on the global financial market.
