Reduced job creation projections for 2025 announced by ILO
Global Employment Forecast Revised Downward by ILO
The International Labour Organisation (ILO) has adjusted its global employment prediction for 2025, estimating the creation of 53 million jobs instead of the initially projected 60 million, indicating a shortfall of approximately 7 million jobs. This downward revised figure corresponds to a decline in the global employment growth rate from 1.7% to 1.5% this year.
The agency's latest report, published by the United Nations, attributes this reduced job creation to a more pessimistic global economic outlook, with GDP growth projected at 2.8%, down from an earlier estimation of 3.2%. The revised GDP growth figure mirrors the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) April 2025 World Economic Outlook.
Gilbert F. Houngbo, the ILO Director-General, noted, "The global economy is experiencing slower growth than anticipated. Our report now indicates that if geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions persist, as well as if we fail to address fundamental questions redefining the world of work, the consequences will be detrimental to labour markets globally."
Approximately 84 million jobs across 71 countries are dependent on, or related to, U.S. consumer demand, which face increased risks of disruption due to escalating trade tensions, with the majority of these jobs concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region. Major job markets such as Canada and Mexico are particularly exposed to fluctuations in U.S. consumer demand, with 17.1% of their employment at risk.
A troublesome trend in income distribution has also emerged, marked by a decline in global labour income share from 53% in 2014 to 52.4% in 2024. This declining share suggests a shift towards capital income and increased economic inequality, as capital income is often concentrated among wealthier individuals. If the labour income share had remained constant, global labour income would have been $1 trillion higher in 2024, or $290 more per worker in purchasing power terms.
Moreover, the ILO report reveals a shift towards high-skilled jobs, with women leading this trend. Between 2013 and 2023, the share of women employed in high-skilled occupations has increased from 21.2% to 23.2%, while the percentage of men in high-skilled occupations has remained around 18% for 2023. The report also indicates that nearly one in four workers could have their jobs transformed by generative AI. Jobs in medium-skilled occupations exhibit a higher degree of exposure to automation by AI; however, a larger percentage of jobs in high-skilled occupations have high exposure, leaving existing tasks susceptible to automation.
In summary, the ILO's report underscores the challenges confronting global labor markets, including reduced employment growth, increased vulnerability to trade tensions, and ongoing issues with income distribution and economic inequality. The downgraded employment forecast suggests that the global economy may be insufficiently creating employment opportunities to meet the demands of the workforce, while the reliance of many jobs on U.S. consumer demand exposes these jobs to trade tensions and potential disruptions. The emerging income distribution trends underscore the need for more inclusive economic growth that ensures workers receive a fair share of the economy's wealth.
- The downgraded employment forecast by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) indicates a decline in the global employment growth rate, resulting in a shortfall of approximately 7 million jobs by 2025.
- The reduced job creation is associated with a more pessimistic global economic outlook, as the projected GDP growth for 2025 stands at 2.8%, a decrease from the previously estimated 3.2%.
- The ILO report suggests a shift towards high-skilled jobs, with women leading this trend, and nearly one in four workers could have their jobs transformed by generative AI, highlighting the need for redefining the world of work to address these trends and ensure inclusive economic growth.
