Rise in consumer loan averages observed
Consumer Loans Are Swelling Across Russia
It looks like the size of personal loans given out in Russia is on the rise. According to recent data from NBKI, the average consumer loan issued in March 2025 stood at 168,500 rubles. Compared to February, this represents a hefty 14% increase from the previous month's average of 147,800 rubles. And this growth trend seems to be continuing, making it the second month in a row that we've seen an increase.
The same pattern is echoed in Omsk, a region in Russia, where the average consumer loan in March 2025 was 167,000 rubles. This is a substantial 23.7% jump over February's average of 135,000 rubles.
Interestingly, the regions with the highest average consumer loans issued in March 2025 were Moscow (302,000 rubles), St. Petersburg (247,000 rubles), and the Moscow region (223,000 rubles).
Now, why is this happening? There are several factors at play.
Firstly, March 2025 saw a 15% monthly increase in consumer loans (to 190 billion rubles) due to seasonal demand patterns[1]. This temporary inflation of average loan sizes during growth periods could be one reason.
Secondly, average consumer loan rates have been falling, hitting around 35% nominal in April 2025, with real rates dropping as inflation moderated to 9.1% SAAR in early 2025[2][4]. Lower real borrowing costs might be encouraging people to take out larger loans.
Lastly, while the Central Bank tightened regulations earlier, recent stabilization in corporate bond yields and balance sheet liquidity improvements might be enabling a measured credit expansion[4].
As for the Omsk region, specific details are scarce, but regional lending patterns could be influenced by local economic conditions, with areas of stronger consumer demand or housing market activity potentially showing larger average loans. Remnants of modified housing subsidy parameters in certain regions post the non-targeted mortgage program could also create regional disparities[4].
Regarding the largest loan sizes by region, the data doesn't lie: it's likely that areas with higher incomes and real estate costs, such as Moscow and St. Petersburg, would lead the pack. Resource-rich regions with commodity-driven economies might also display elevated borrowing capacity[4].
The data indicates a contraction in unsecured consumer lending nationally through February 2025. This recent growth in average loan sizes, if sustained, could suggest that borrowers are consolidating their debts towards larger, possibly secured loans amidst tighter credit standards[4].
- I'm not sure if the growing consumer loan sizes in Omsk are directly linked to local economic conditions or influenced by national trends.
- The average consumer loan rate of 35% nominal in April 2025 and the moderated 9.1% SAAR inflation might be indicative of more people seeking loans due to lower real borrowing costs.
- The banking-and-insurance industry might be experiencing a shift as consumers in Moscow and St. Petersburg, with higher incomes and real estate costs, opt for larger loans, potentially due to consolidation of debts towards larger, possibly secured loans.
- The average consumer loan issued in Moscow in March 2025 was 302,000 rubles, making it the region with the highest average consumer loan, indicating a potential correlation between income levels and loan sizes in the finance sector.
