Rising inflation persists in Belarus, as per Eurobank's prediction.
Belarus is grappling with rising inflation, with the annual rate reaching 7.4% in July 2025, according to the latest data. The increase is primarily attributed to significant jumps in food prices and service costs.
Food inflation in Belarus has reached over 10%, reflecting supply-demand imbalances and possibly higher input costs. Services inflation, on the other hand, has climbed above 7%, adding upward pressure to consumer prices.
These price increases can be partially attributed to the increase in regulated tariffs for housing and communal services, which have contributed to the inflation acceleration in the services sector.
The National Bank of Belarus has taken steps to curb inflation, raising the refinancing rate slightly to 9.75% in June 2025. However, the bank has stated that no further hikes are planned unless necessary, indicating a cautious monetary stance.
Despite the measures taken, inflationary pressure in Belarus remains high, with analysts at the Eurasian Development Bank highlighting the issue. The EADB predicts that inflation will be at 7.7% year-on-year by the end of 2025.
Active consumer demand, supported by an increase in real wages, continues to exert inflationary pressure. The growth rate of non-food goods prices has slowed down slightly, but remains a concern.
The Eurasian Development Bank's analysis does not provide specific details about the forecasted inflation rate by the end of the year. However, given the National Bank's expectation to hold inflation growth within 5% and current inflation rates higher than that, it suggests a potential moderation but sustained inflation above target levels in the near term.
In conclusion, rising food and service prices paired with cautious monetary policy are the main drivers of Belarus's elevated inflation. The National Bank signals no imminent interest rate hikes but an option for reductions if conditions improve. The Eurasian Development Bank has shared a forecast for Belarus's inflation rate by the end of the year, predicting a rate of 7.7% year-on-year.
Finance ministers in Belarus are closely monitoring the national inflation rate, which is expected to reach 7.7% by the end of 2025, according to the Eurasian Development Bank. The high inflation is largely attributed to increases in food and service prices.
