Russia and Iran are working to establish a fresh economic landscape in the South Caucasus, according to a recent report.
Revamped Article:
The South Caucasus region is now the center of an evolving economic alliance between Russia, Iran, and Turkey, aimed at bypassing Western sanctions. This explosive partnership, forged amidst conflicts in Syria, Ukraine, and Gaza, is shaping a new economic order in the region, according to a report by the Clingendael Institute.
This report reveals that the turmoil in Syria, Ukraine, and Gaza created fertile ground for the strategic partnership between Russia and Iran to flourish. All three nations, including a NATO member Turkey, are eager to establish a new economic landscape in the South Caucasus, an area that the report describes as departing from the global liberal market economy.
Pre-2022, Russia was seen as the strategic mastermind of the Caucasus. However, the report suggests that the Kremlin's diminished influence created room for a tighter economic bond between Russia, Iran, and Turkey. The common thread binding them is a united front against Western economic dominance.
The report points out that this new economic reality is advantageous for Iran, as Russian ambitions such as creating an independent monetary system, energy market, and parallel supply chains independent of Western regulations can help alleviate Iran's isolation. This collaboration can pave the way for a land-based Russian economic shift towards the Middle East and Indian subcontinent, circumventing the Persian Gulf and the Suez Canal.
The Soviet-Irian partnership took a tangible form in 2017, when diplomats from all three nations gathered in Astana, Kazakhstan, to discuss war-ravaged Syria's future. The Ukraine conflict accelerated their need for coordination, especially between Russia and Iran. Israel's involvement in Gaza added further impetus, as all three nations share anti-Israel sentiments, the report notes.
Despite the mutual benefits, obstacles remain. The report identifies the complex relationship between Turkey, Israel, and Iran as a potential hurdle. Iran alleges that Israel smuggled the drones used to attack its nuclear facilities via Azerbaijan. Conversely, Azerbaijan accuses Armenia of acting as a conduit for Iranian arms supplies.
The report concludes that the ongoing instability in Ukraine has transformed the South Caucasus into an economic opportunity, even as security concerns remain fluid. The core players are actively working to manage the situation, albeit without clearly defined roles. The Gaza conflict adds additional pressure, further complicating the already intricate dance of alliances.
Enrichment Data:
Current Stats and Alliances:
- Russia and Iran: The partnership between Russia and Iran is at a strategic level, marked by extensive energy and security cooperation. This strong relationship is further demonstrated by the planned visit of Russian President Putin to Iran, solidifying their ties.
- Russia and Turkey: The relationship between Russia and Turkey is complex, with Russia seeking to maintain control over the South Caucasus, and Turkey championing the Middle Corridor initiative as an alternative to Russian-controlled infrastructure. This initiative, which benefits the EU, has caused a slight strain in Russia-Turkey relations.
- Iran and Turkey: Even though Iran and Turkey have collaborated on regional affairs, their relationship is marred by differing interests in the Middle East and Caucasus. Turkey's alignment with Georgia and its support for Georgia's territorial integrity presents a challenge, considering Turkey does not recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia's independence.
Impact of Conflicts:
- Syria Conflict: The Syrian conflict resulted in significant cooperation between Russia, Iran, and Turkey, particularly through the Astana peace process. However, their interests don't always align, as evident in Turkey's concerns about Kurdish groups and Iran's support for the Syrian government.
- Ukraine Conflict: The Ukraine conflict has boosted the importance of the Middle Corridor, which benefits Turkey and the EU by providing an alternative to Russian-controlled routes. This has caused a minor strain in Russia-Turkey relations, as Turkey seeks to boost its role in European energy and transportation networks.
- Gaza Conflict: While the Gaza conflict hasn't directly impacted the Russian-Iranian-Turkish alliance in the South Caucasus, it reflects broader regional tensions involving Turkey, Iran, and other Middle Eastern actors. Turkey's stance on Gaza is often in alignment with other Muslim-majority nations, which can influence its relations with Iran and Russia when regional stability is discussed.
- The new economic alliance between Russia, Iran, and Turkey, as outlined in the Clingendael Institute's report, is not only shaped by the regional instability in Syria, Ukraine, and Gaza, but also offers Iran an advantageous position in the redefined energy market, thanks to Russia's ambitions for an independent monetary system and energy market.
- Despite the strategic partnership between Russia and Turkey being somewhat complex, with Russia's influence in the South Caucasus and Turkey's Middle Corridor initiative causing a slight strain, both nations are jointly working to establish a new economic landscape in the region, with the potential for a land-based shift in Russian economic influence towards the Middle East and Indian subcontinent.
