Scottsdale Real Estate Trends and Outlook 2025-2026
Scottsdale Housing Market Outlook: Modest Growth with Cautionary Factors
The Scottsdale housing market is experiencing a shift in 2025, moving towards a buyer's market, with a median home price of $920,000 as of June. This represents a slight increase of 2.22% month-over-month, according to recent data.
However, broader market forces suggest a slower pace ahead. Mortgage rates are expected to remain elevated, around 6% to 6.5%, which will constrain affordability and moderate buyer demand. Inventory is also expected to gradually increase, providing more options for buyers but preventing a sharp spike in prices.
Economic growth in Scottsdale and the larger region is steady but moderate, supporting continued but cautious buying activity. Migration into Scottsdale remains positive, though growth may slow compared to previous years, maintaining steady demand.
In the broader Arizona context, there is a slight cooling trend, with the statewide median home price dropping about 1.3% year-over-year as of June 2025. This suggests no housing crash but rather a stabilization phase with restrained price growth in Scottsdale as well.
The rental markets in Phoenix metropolitan areas face increased vacancies and softening rents due to overbuilding—especially in luxury and workforce housing. This trend indirectly implies buyers might face less upward pressure on prices in the nearby Scottsdale market through 2026.
The outlook favours a "slow and steady" scenario with moderate price appreciation, rising inventory, and steady demand underpinned by stable economic conditions and population growth, but tempered by higher financing costs. Buyers can expect more choice, and sellers should be realistic about appreciating values in this environment.
As we move into the second half of 2025 and into 2026, it is anticipated that home prices will start to rise again, although not as dramatically as in the past. If migration to Scottsdale stagnates or even declines slightly, the overall market activity could become more moderate and predictable.
Sellers may regain some negotiating power, but working with an experienced real estate agent is more important than ever to navigate the changing conditions in the Scottsdale housing market.
In June 2025, the months supply of inventory in Scottsdale was 8.18, indicating a buyer's market. As of 07/31/2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is around 6.72%, and the 15-Yr FRM is about 5.85%. The median estimated value of homes in Scottsdale is $863,980, showing a 1.4% change over the past 12 months.
In summary, the Scottsdale housing market outlook for the rest of 2025 and into 2026 indicates modest growth with some cautionary factors. Buyers and sellers alike should stay informed and work with knowledgeable professionals to make the most of the current market conditions.
[1] Scottsdale Real Estate Market Report, Q2 2025 [2] Phoenix Rental Market Report, Q2 2025 [3] Arizona Housing Market Report, Q2 2025
- In the Scottsdale housing market, foreclosure rates are expected to remain low, indicating a stable market, as homeowners find ways to manage elevated mortgage payments.
- As the rental market in Phoenix faces increased vacancies, real estate investors may see potential in rental deals in Scottsdale, offering a steady cash flow in the housing-market.
- The growth of the Scottsdale housing market is moderated by the rising cost of tax and finance, as the rates for both 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgages have increased.
- For individual investors, educating themselves on the trends and conditions of the Scottsdale real estate market is essential to making sound real-estate investment decisions, particularly in this transitioning market.
- Despite the slow price appreciation, buyer demand for Scottsdale housing still remains steady, driven by economic growth and positive migration into the region.
- When planning for investments in the housing market, it's important to consider factors like the inventory growth, which will provide more choice for buyers and put some downward pressure on prices.
- The Scottsdale housing market is experiencing a shift towards a buyer's market, which means it's crucial for sellers to work with experienced real estate agents to effectively market and negotiate their properties in this changing environment.
