skyrocketing costs of school supplies: notebooks and character blocks experiencing substantial price hikes
Germany's economic outlook is shrouded in uncertainty, with contrasting predictions about inflation rates this fall. While some experts, such as Jens Südekum, a government advisor and professor of international economics at Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, have suggested double-digit inflation rates due to the expiration of the fuel discount and end of the nine-euro ticket for public transport, current data tells a different story.
Contrary to Südekum's prediction, inflation has substantially eased, with rates around 2% in mid-2025. This lower inflation is mainly due to falling energy prices and a slowdown in food price increases. In June 2025, the inflation rate stood at 2.0%, down from a peak of about 2.6% in late 2024, and core inflation (excluding food and energy) was approximately 2.7%.
The context therefore contradicts the notion of double-digit inflation rates in Germany this fall. Instead, the moderate inflation environment is expected to support economic stability by avoiding the adverse effects that high inflation would trigger, such as eroded purchasing power, increased uncertainty, and possible higher interest rates.
However, the issue of rising gas prices remains a concern. Industries are predicted to cut production due to the increase in gas prices, and consumers are expected to reduce their consumption. The increase in gas prices will significantly burden the economy, and there is a possibility of new gas surcharges.
Moreover, the price of consumer goods has seen a significant increase. For instance, overall living costs increased by 7.5% over the same period, with prices for school backpacks, pens and paint sets, as well as refills and refill cartridges, increasing by respective amounts of 4.7%, 5.2%, and undisclosed. The Federal Statistical Office reported a 13.6% price increase for notebooks and sketchpads in the recent period. The factors contributing to these high price increases are likely to include persistent paper shortages and rising production costs.
Despite these challenges, the state's fuel discount and the nine-euro ticket for public transport have provided some relief recently. However, it's important to note that Jens Südekum's prediction does not account for any potential relief from these measures.
In conclusion, while the outlook for inflation in Germany this fall is not as dire as some predictions suggest, the issue of rising gas prices and the subsequent impact on consumer goods prices remains a significant concern. The moderate inflation environment, if maintained, should help maintain economic stability. However, it's crucial for policymakers to consider all factors, including the potential impact of gas price increases on industries and consumers, when making decisions about measures like the fuel discount and nine-euro ticket for public transport.
[1] Bundesbank Monthly Report, June 2025. [2] Deutsche Bundesbank, Inflation Report, June 2025. [3] Statistisches Bundesamt, Preisentwicklung, June 2025. [4] Ifo Institute, Inflation Report, June 2025.
- In contrast to earlier predictions by Jens Südekum, the current inflation rates in mid-2025 are substantially lower, at around 2%, a development primarily influenced by falling energy prices and a slowdown in food price increases.
- Despite the evident moderate inflation environment, the rise in gas prices and subsequent increase in consumer goods prices remain a concern for both industries and consumers, with significant implications for the German economy.
