Soybeans ascending on Thursday due to insufficient export activity
Soybeans Buck Trend and Gain Strength
In a surprising turn of events, soybeans have gained ground on Thursday, with gains ranging from 3 to 7 cents. The nearby futures are leading the charge, with the CmdtyView's national front-month cash bean price up by 7 3/4 cents, sitting at $9.98 1/4. Soymeal futures, however, have taken a dip, down $2.70/ton, while Soy Oil futures have seen a lift of 116 points on the session.
As part of ongoing trade negotiations, Japan is contemplating beefing up its US soybean purchases to compensate for some of the demand lost to China. For context, Japan's annual soybean imports typically hover between 3 and 3.5 MMT, with historical US shipments to Japan ranging from 2.1 to 2.6 MMT.
Fancy the idea of creating your own paycheck? Check out our website for top-notch commodity analysis on everything from crude oil to coffee. This morning's Export Sales report reveals old crop soybean sales in the week ending April 17 at 277,012 MT, which fell on the lower side of the expected 200,000 to 600,000 MT but still marked a 31.3% increase from the same week last year. Mexico was the largest buyer, snapping up 87,800 MT, followed by the Netherlands with 65,800 MT. Sales for the 2025/26 period showed a modest reduction of just 120 MT.
Meal sales clocked in at 176,178 MT in the given week, just below expectations of 150,000 to 400,000 MT. Bean oil bookings were at 12,380 MT, compared to estimates of 5,000 to 35,000 MT.
May 25 Soybeans stand at $10.47 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents, while nearby cash is at $9.98 1/4, a gain of 7 3/4 cents. July 25 Soybeans are quoted at $10.57, up 6 3/4 cents, and November 25 Soybeans sit at $10.31, a 3 1/2 cent increase. New crop cash is at $9.69 1/2, a 3 1/4 cent rise.
On publication date, Austin Schroeder held no positions in the securities mentioned in this article. This information is for informational purposes only. For more details, please refer to our Disclosure Policy at here.
Behind the Scenes: Recent developments in U.S.-Japan trade negotiations paint an interesting picture for soybean imports.
- Status Quo: Japan is mulling over larger purchases of U.S. soybeans and corn to offset reduced demand from China due to tariffs.
- Recent Deals: Unspecified sales of 121,000 metric tons of soybeans and 120,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan in MY 2024/2025 have been reported.
- Motivation: Japan may use increased agricultural imports as bargaining chips to persuade the Trump administration to remove tariffs on autos and metals.
Pending tariff negotiations and China's ongoing trade restrictions could drive Japan's soybean imports from the U.S. to rise in the short-to-medium term. Economic Minister Ryosei Akazawa is expected to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent from April 30 to May 2, which could potentially see soybean imports feature prominently in the negotiations. If tensions between the U.S. and China persist, Japan may become a strategic buyer, especially considering the subsequent tariffs on Chinese soybeans. The U.S. is also negotiating to open Japan's market further for rice and other agricultural goods.
- By 2025, investors might see decent returns from soybean investments, as Japan is considering increasing its soybean purchases to compensate for the demand lost to China.
- The finance sector could be impacted by the ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Japan, as soybean prices might play a crucial role in future trade agreements.
- In the food-and-drink industry, the price of soybeans could influence the lifestyle and meals of consumers, especially in Japan, due to potential changes in agricultural imports.
- Interested in the business of investing in commodities? Keep an eye on soybean prices, as recent trends suggest they are gaining strength leading up to 2025.
- The cmdtyview platform can offer valuable insights into the soybean market, providing analysis on the price, returns, and future outlook, which can be beneficial for both traders and those in the food-and-drink industry.
