The Rise of Trump's Presidency: A Predictable Ascension Before the Election
Predicting Donald Trump's triumph as America's 47th president in 2025 was not a last-minute shock, but rather a foreseeable reality. The misconception that the competition was a tie was fueled by factors irrelevant to the election's outcome.
Historian Allan Lichtman, a seasoned prognosticator since 1981, has a near-outstanding record in forecasting U.S. presidential elections. Lichtman's approach, coined the "13 Keys," evaluates 13 essential factors that determine Election Day outcomes. By assigning "true" or "false" to specific statements based on these factors, Lichtman predicts the winner.
The simplicity of Lichtman's method—often referred to as a "tally heuristic"—explains its popularity. Essentially, it's a straightforward technique capable of making forecasts in complex circumstances, outperforming the judgments of human experts who are generally good at identifying important factors but less proficient at consistently aligning them.
Lichtman's model has only misjudged the outcomes three times since 1981: the 2000 Bush-Gore contest, which he inaccurately predicted for Gore but ultimately was won by Bush; the 2016 election between Trump and Clinton, for which he correctly forecast the winner but not the popular vote total; and, most recently, this prediction of Trump's victory over Harris in 2024.
In examining each of these misjudgments, Lichtman's analysis points to unique circumstances, such as the closely contested ballots in Florida that narrowly tipped the election in favor of Bush or the global inflation surge exacerbated by excessive economic stimulus.
In the case of the 2024 election, one factor that might have influenced the outcome is the portrayal of Trump as lacking charisma or hero status by Lichtman. A compelling argument can be made, however, that Trump's rallies showcase his charisma, making this attribution less decisive.
Another factor that could have influenced the election outcome was Lichtman's evaluation of the economy during the election campaign, stating that it was not in a recession. While this might be technically accurate, it did not capture working-class and Latino voters' perceptions of the economy during Biden's presidency, which significantly contributed to Trump's victory. Inflation, particularly the decline in real wages, had a significant impact on these voters' ballot choices.
In conclusion, while election forecasting tools, like Lichtman's, can't guarantee perfect results, they provide valuable insights based on historical trends and structural factors vital in understanding the complex world of U.S. politics.
The 'fast and frugal' prediction heuristics used by historian Allan Lichtman in forecasting elections, such as predicting Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 inauguration, have demonstrated effectiveness despite occasional misjudgments. Despite predicting a narrow popular vote victory for Hillary Clinton in 2016, Lichtman's model correctly identified Trump as the winner.
In contrast to some critique that Donald Trump lacked charisma or hero status, his rallies showcased a different narrative, making this attribution less decisive in the 2024 prediction. Additionally, Lichtman's assessment that the economy was not in a recession during the election campaign might not have fully captured the situation from the perspective of working-class and Latino voters, contributing to Trump's victory.
