Sanctioning Putin: EU Cranks Up the Pressure, but Trump Makes the Difference
By Liv Spark
Trump intensifies sanctions targeting Putin
It's no secret that the EU wants to tighten the screws on Putin's economic empire, but they can't do it without Trump on board. If ol' Donny visits his buddy in Brussels for a round of golf, he could torpedo the whole operation.
In the game of sanctions, a lower oil price cap is the EU's latest move. They dropped their initial price cap of $60 per barrel down to $45 as part of their 18th sanctions package against Russia. To enforce this new cap, they need help from the G7 crew, including Trump.
It looks like Trump might be on board. He's all about cheap oil these days, thinking it'll speed up Russia's retreat from Ukraine. Plus, his trade policies have been tanking the economy, putting some downward pressure on oil prices. But will he put the pressure on Putin? That's the burning question.
Politics
A New Sanctions Package for Putin's Pain
Politically speaking, Trump holds the big stick here. He can hit Russia with secondary sanctions, making it real tough for the country to do business globally. But EU legal constraints prevent them from doing the same.
US Economy on the Line
The US is debating the use of secondary sanctions now. More than 80 senators have signed a bill pushed by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham. Trump seems okay with it but wants to water it down. If it becomes law, the US could take a major hit. The current draft imposes a 500% tariff on any country buying Russian energy. That would hurt not just Russia, but the EU too, as some countries still buy Russian gas.
Economy
Rare Earths now Rare Friends
Graham's sanctions bill could isolate the US with India and China, the biggest buyers of Russian oil. A 500% tariff would end trade with these countries at a bad time. The US and China are getting cozy right now, thanks to a new trade framework agreement that's awaiting approval from both leaders.
"I doubt super-harsh secondary sanctions against oil buyers are feasible at this point, especially with the US pursuing new trade deals with China and India," says Alexandra Prokopenko, an expert on Russian economic policy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Even the threat of secondary sanctions against Indian or Chinese companies could undermine the hard-won progress achieved through bilateral talks, she warns.
Politics
Trade Deal with China on the Horizon
For the moment, the EU is stuck with their primary sanctions. The planned 18th package includes the lower oil price cap, as well as sanctions against more ships and banks. The pipeline connection between Russia and Germany could also be in the crosshairs. The German government has ruled out restarting gas transit after the war, but there are whispers of renewed gas supplies as part of a deal between the US and Russia to end the invasion.
If the rumors are true, don't be surprised if Trump sticks his nose in. The decisions made in Brussels will happen without him, but he could throw a curveball: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is good friends with both Trump and Putin. Back in January, Orban threatened to block the extension of existing EU sanctions. If he decides to veto the new package, it could mean game over for the sanctions.
Politics
Orban's Bluff or Brilliance? The Future of EU Sanctions
Orban's connections to Trump and Putin could make or break the sanctions. If he decides to veto, Russia could find a way to wiggle out of tough financial restrictions. But Orban might be playing a dangerous game. Trump is no longer in the White House, and the EU might not take kindly to one of its members defying sanctions against a country causing so much global turmoil.
[1] Article on the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025
[2] Article on U.S. Tariffs on Russian Energy Imports
[3] Article on Tensions between Hungary and the EU over Russia Sanctions
[4] Article on Orban's Threat to Block EU Sanctions on Russia
[5] Article on US-Hungarian Relations and the Sanctions Issue
Keywords:
- EU sanctions
- US sanctions
- Russia
- Putin
- Orban
- Trump
- Hungary
- oil price
- trade
- economy
- tariffs
- secondary sanctions
- gas pipeline
Enrichment Data:
Overall:
The potential imposition of U.S. secondary sanctions on foreign companies doing business with Russia could significantly bolster the EU's sanctions regime against Moscow by increasing the economic pressure and constraining the options of non-EU countries in dealing with Russia. At the same time, Hungary's political dynamics, particularly Prime Minister Viktor Orban's relationships with both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, could complicate the overall effectiveness of these sanctions.
Impact of U.S. Secondary Sanctions on EU Sanctions Against Russia
- Increased Global Pressure Through Secondary Sanctions: The proposed U.S. sanctions legislation, such as the bipartisan Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, would impose secondary sanctions on foreign companies and countries engaging with Russian financial institutions and energy sectors. This means companies globally risk being cut off from the U.S. financial system if they deal with sanctioned Russian banks or buy Russian oil, gas, uranium, or petrochemical products[1][2][3][4].
- Johnny-Come-Lately Problem: The EU's sanctions against Russia started in 2014, while the US only began to enact significant measures in 2019[3]. This delay in US action leaves some EU states dependent on Russian energy, limiting their willingness to fully enforce primary sanctions on Russia.
- Frictions within the EU: While there is strong support for sanctions against Russia within the EU, individual states have different levels of dependence on Russian energy. This discrepancy can lead to divisions and weaken the EU's collective ability to impose effective sanctions.
Influence of Viktor Orbán’s Relationships with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin
- Orban’s Alliance with Putin: Hungary's dependence on Russian energy supplies makes it reluctant to fully enforce EU sanctions against Russia. Orban's close relationship with Putin, built on years of negotiations and energy cooperation, further perpetuates this reluctance[5].
- Orban’s Past Relationship with Trump: Orban and Trump shared a populist, nationalist mindset, leading to warm personal ties. However, Trump's successor Joe Biden might not be as sympathetic to Hungary's objections to EU sanctions, which could changing the political landscape regarding sanctions enforcement in Hungary.
- Potential Diplomatic Frictions: Given Orban's ties to both leaders, his stance could influence Hungary's enforcement of EU sanctions. If Hungary chooses to soften its sanctions or seek exceptions, it could create friction within the EU and weaken the bloc's unified sanctions regime.
Summary
- U.S. secondary sanctions could substantially bolster the EU's efforts to economically pressure Russia, but their effectiveness depends on the willingness and ability of various countries and companies to comply.
- EU unity and cohesion in enforcing sanctions will be crucial, as discrepancies among member states can weaken the bloc's overall stance against Russia.
- Hungary, under Orban, could pose a challenge to sanctions cohesion due to his close relationship with Putin, past friendship with Trump, and Hungary's energy dependence on Russia. This could lead to divisions within the EU, providing Russia with potential openings to maneuver and circumvent sanctions.
These interconnected factors show that while U.S. secondary sanctions may provide some economic pressure on Russia, their effectiveness depends on the EU's ability to maintain a united stance, particularly in the face of Hungarian resistance stemming from Orban's relationships with both Putin and former President Trump.
- The EU is relying on the support of President Trump to tighten the screws on Putin's economic empire, as the lower oil price cap in their latest sanctions package against Russia requires cooperation from the G7, including the US.
- The US is considering the use of secondary sanctions against countries buying Russian energy, as proposed in the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025. If these sanctions become law, they could impact the EU economy, as some countries still buy Russian gas, and potentially isolate the US if India and China, the biggest buyers of Russian oil, are affected.
- Prime Minister Orbán of Hungary, with his connections to both Trump and Putin, holds a significant role in the future of EU sanctions against Russia. If he decides to veto the new EU sanctions package, it could weaken the EU's collective ability to impose effective sanctions against Russia, potentially allowing Moscow to find ways to wiggle out of tough financial restrictions.
