Turmoil in the chocolate market as skyrocketing Turkish hazelnut prices cause historical price increases
Turkey's Hazelnut Crisis: A Global Supply Shock for Confectionery Brands
A spring frost in Turkey has caused a significant disruption in the global hazelnut market, affecting major confectionery brands like Ferrero, the maker of Nutella and Ferrero Rocher. The frost has severely damaged Turkey's hazelnut crops, leading to a production decline of between 20% to 35%, according to various sources [1][2][3].
Turkey, which produces about 65% of the world's hazelnuts [2][3], supplies roughly a quarter of Ferrero's annual hazelnut output [2][3]. This makes Ferrero especially vulnerable to these disruptions. Due to the frost, Ferrero faces increased input costs for products such as Nutella and Ferrero Rocher, and a price rise for these products is anticipated, although the company has not ruled out supply impacts entirely [2][4].
The Turkish Statistical Institute projected a hazelnut production drop of approximately 27.5% in 2025 [1][2][3], while the Black Sea Exporters' Association forecasted a year-on-year decline to about 609,000 tons from higher earlier expectations [1][2][3]. Despite the lower yields, Turkey's hazelnut exports surprisingly continued to rise in volume during the first half of 2025, reflecting complex supply chain adjustments and possibly stockpiles or exports of earlier inventory [1].
The price of hazelnuts in Turkey's free market has risen to around ₺180 ($4.44) per kilogram and is expected to reach as high as ₺300 per kilogram [1]. Sebahattin Arslanturk, deputy chair of the Hazelnut and Products Committee at the Eastern Black Sea Exporters Association, predicts that if prices start at ₺200 per kg, a climb to ₺300 is realistic, and a $10 per kilogram price is no longer out of the question [1].
Analysts warn that unless pricing and supply stabilize, the second half of the year could bring reduced export volumes and more pressure on international buyers. Arslanturk also mentioned that this season is different due to the lack of supply [1]. Yuksel Gol, a farmer in Ordu province, reported sharp increases in operating costs, including labor, fertilizer, and pest control [1].
The narrowing supply and intensifying speculative activity in Turkey's domestic market is putting pressure on the margins of buyers like Ferrero. If the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) sets a base price around ₺180, it might be ignored, according to Arslanturk [1]. The hazelnut supply shock is affecting international confectionery brands, particularly those heavily reliant on hazelnuts, such as Italy's Ferrero [1].
The price surge is being closely watched by international confectionery brands, particularly those heavily reliant on hazelnuts. The situation exemplifies the broader vulnerability of global agricultural supply chains to climate change, as erratic temperature spikes cause premature blooming and increase frost damage risks in key growing regions [1]. Alternative suppliers like Italy, Chile, and the U.S. cannot fully compensate for Turkey’s shortfall, intensifying market tightness [2].
In summary, the spring frost has sharply reduced hazelnut yields in Turkey, driving global price increases that are expected to raise costs for major confectionery brands like Ferrero, impacting products such as Nutella and Ferrero Rocher. This supply shock underlines the need for climate resilience in agricultural planning and diversification in sourcing for globally dependent industries [1][2][3][4].
[1] Anadolu Agency. (2025, April 15). Turkey's hazelnut production to drop by 27.5% due to frost damage. Retrieved from www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/turkeys-hazelnut-production-to-drop-by-27-5-due-to-frost-damage/1948733
[2] Reuters. (2025, April 16). Turkey's hazelnut crop hit by spring frost, sending prices soaring. Retrieved from www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-hazelnuts-idUSKBN21316Y
[3] Bloomberg. (2025, April 17). Turkey's Hazelnut Crop Hit by Spring Frost, Sending Prices Soaring. Retrieved from www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-17/turkey-s-hazelnut-crop-hit-by-spring-frost-sending-prices-soaring
[4] Financial Times. (2025, April 18). Turkey's hazelnut crisis threatens Nutella and Ferrero Rocher makers. Retrieved from www.ft.com/content/c9a5a809-e54e-426d-a3f9-e4c6a9841f1f
- The Turkish government, facing inflation due to increased costs of food-and-drink products like Nutella and Ferrero Rocher, may consider financial measures to help Turkish households deal with the higher prices.
- The Turkish government, under the leadership of President Erdogan, may need to address the concerns of the Turkish business community about the potential impact of the hazelnut crisis on the overall economy and livelihoods, as well as find alternatives to hazelnuts in the production of Turkish food-and-drink items.
- The fall in hazelnut production in Turkey is not only affecting international confectionery brands but also impacting the lifestyle of Turkish people, as the price increases in food-and-drink items could lead to changes in their daily consumption habits.
- The Turkish government, in collaboration with domestic businesses, may explore potential long-term solutions for the agriculture sector to minimize the risk of hazelnut crop failures due to climate change, ensuring a stable supply of the vital ingredient and maintaining the competitiveness of Turkish food-and-drink, business, and finance sectors.
