US rail traffic continues to outpace projections for 2024, thanks to a surge in grain and automotive shipments.
The current trend in North American rail traffic shows overall growth in both carloads and intermodal units in 2025, with variations by category and region.
North American total rail volume (carloads + intermodal units) for the first 31-32 weeks of 2025 is up about 2.9% compared with 2024 [1][2][3][4]. Weekly traffic increases range around 3.6% to 5.4% year-over-year, depending on the week reported [1][2][5].
Regarding specific categories, grain shipments showed fluctuations in 2025 but have generally declined or remained weak relative to last year in some reports; Canadian rail grain carloads are generally down, contributing to decreased carloads in some weeks [1][4]. Motor vehicles and parts shipments have seen some declines or slower growth compared to other commodities in certain reports, reflecting supply chain or market pressures (details are less highlighted in the search results, but generally motor vehicle carloads tend to be more volatile).
Intermodal traffic (containers and trailers) is a strong growth area. U.S. intermodal units have risen 4.8% to 5.5% year-over-year for the year-to-date and weekly figures [1][2][3]. Canadian intermodal traffic showed a significant increase, up 7.5% to 14.1% in recent weeks compared to 2024 [1][2]. Mexican intermodal units increased by 8.2% to 28.1% in weekly comparisons despite an overall decline in their total carload/intermodal volume year-to-date [1][2][3].
While the search results do not specifically mention tariffs directly impacting intermodal rail traffic, it is generally recognized in logistics that tariffs on international trade can influence containerized shipments moving via rail intermodal service. Rising or fluctuating tariffs typically affect import/export volumes, which in turn correlate to intermodal rail traffic volumes. The continued growth in intermodal rail units suggests either tariffs have not dampened demand significantly or other factors like supply chains and e-commerce growth are driving intermodal volume gains in the reported period.
In summary, North American rail traffic in 2025 is growing modestly overall, with intermodal shipments (containers/trailers) showing the strongest increases, while carload categories such as grain and motor vehicles show mixed or weaker trends. The role of tariffs on intermodal traffic is indirectly inferred but lacks explicit current data in these reports.
In Mexico, the volume for the year to date is 745,152 carloads and intermodal units, a decline of 5.1%. Grain saw a double-digit increase of 25.7%. New U.S. tariffs were imposed on several countries, with levies ranging from 15% to 50%. Rail traffic for the week ending Aug. 2, 2025, was 513,529 carloads and intermodal units, a 2.9% increase over the same week a year earlier. Consultant Lawrence Gross believes that the balance of the year will be challenging for intermodal traffic with more downside risk than upside.
[1] BNSF, CSX, and Union Pacific saw weekly improvements in intermodal traffic. [2] North American volume for the year to date is 20,943,417 carloads and intermodal units, a 2.9% increase over the first 31 weeks of 2024. [3] The 31-week figure includes 6,828,409 carloads, up 2.8%, and 8,334,202 intermodal units, up 4.7%. [4] In Canada, the volume for the year to date is 5,035,654 carloads and intermodal units, a gain of 1.6%. [5] Motor vehicles and parts also saw an increase of 10.2%. [6] Through 31 weeks of 2025, traffic totalled 16,162,611 carloads and intermodal units, a 3.8% increase over the same period in 2024. [7] Mexico's GMXT and Norfolk Southern were below previous-year levels in intermodal traffic. [8] The figure included 233,805 carloads, up 6.4%, and 279,724 containers and trailers, up 0.2%.
- The growth in North American intermodal traffic, particularly in containers and trailers, extends to finance sectors, as intermodal unit volumes have risen by 4.8% to 5.5% year-over-year, causing a surge in revenue for transportation companies.
- The transportation industry in North America is influenced by the finance sector, with variations in international trade tariffs impacting intermodal rail traffic, as rising or fluctuating tariffs often affect import/export volumes and subsequently intermodal rail traffic volumes.
