Waning Speculative Fervor Identified in Bitcoin Futures Contracts by Glassnode Analysts
In the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana futures open interest (OI) have been exhibiting significant increases, albeit with distinct nuances that reveal shifting trader sentiment and market dynamics.
Ethereum futures open interest on CME has soared to a record $7.85 billion as of July 26, 2025, indicating a sharp rise in leveraged speculative activity and institutional participation. Ethereum’s perpetual futures volume recently surpassed Bitcoin’s for the first time since early 2022, highlighting a significant rotation of capital and speculative interest towards Ethereum and altcoins more broadly. This surge accompanies Ethereum’s price momentum near $3,743, with important resistance levels at $4,500 and an all-time high near $4,891. The elevated open interest and volume dominance suggest heightened bullish sentiment but also increased risk of abrupt corrections from leverage.
Solana’s futures open interest has also climbed sharply, reaching an all-time high of $10.74 billion. This 22% increase in Solana futures OI over the past month signals strong institutional and retail participation. Solana’s price has gained about 13% in the prior week, trading around $191 with near-term targets at $205 and resistance at $220. The rising open interest and ecosystem growth point to a generally bullish trader sentiment and confidence in Solana’s growth potential within the blockchain space.
Bitcoin open interest remains large but is being relatively outpaced by Ethereum and Solana in terms of growth and changing dominance. Bitcoin’s open interest dominance among major crypto futures stands around 62%, with Ethereum at 38%. However, Ethereum’s OI dominance is inflecting upwards, showing increasing speculative attention away from Bitcoin and toward altcoins. The combined OI across Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin rose sharply from $26 billion to $44 billion in early July. Elevated funding costs and leveraged long positions indicate growing optimism and aggressive positioning in the crypto futures market, though Bitcoin continues to hold a substantial share of market interest.
The surge in Ethereum and Solana futures open interest alongside rising prices suggests bullish trader sentiment, increased speculative activity, and greater institutional involvement in altcoins. The shift in open interest dominance from Bitcoin toward Ethereum and Solana indicates a market rotation, where traders are seeking higher gains or opportunities in altcoins despite potentially higher volatility and leverage risks. Elevated open interest and leveraged positions raise market volatility and correction risk, thus while the sentiment is optimistic, caution remains warranted.
CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain believes Bitcoin's price is still far from its cycle peak. The MVRV indicator for Bitcoin has not yet reached the top price of this cycle, according to CryptoOnchain. The short-term trendline (7-day SMA) for Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen below the mid-term trendline, suggesting a potential decrease in speculative positions. However, a large proportion (more than 66%) of traders on Binance are "sitting in longs," betting on a Bitcoin rebound.
For Solana futures, the 7-day SMA remains above the 30-day SMA and continues to move upward. The short-term trendline for Ethereum futures open interest has rebounded, suggesting traders are reopening positions. The mid-term trendline for Ethereum futures open interest peaked in mid-December.
In summary, the current trend of increasing futures open interest in Ethereum and Solana — together with their price surges and Ethereum overtaking Bitcoin in perpetual volume dominance — points to a strong bullish environment and rotation toward altcoins, highlighting speculative eagerness and growing market complexity. While the market dynamics are shifting, it is crucial for investors to remain cautious and diligent in their investment strategies.
[1] CoinDesk: Ethereum Futures Open Interest Hits Record $7.85 Billion [2] The Block: Solana Futures Open Interest Surges to $10.74 Billion [3] Cointelegraph: Ethereum Futures Volume Overtakes Bitcoin for First Time Since 2022 [4] Decrypt: Solana Price Prediction: Can SOL Reach $200 in 2025?
Investing in Ethereum and Solana futures has witnessed a surge in open interest, reaching record-breaking levels, indicating a rise in leveraged speculative activity and institutional participation. This bullish sentiment, in combination with altcoins' changing dominance, signifies a market rotation where traders are seeking higher gains in these cryptocurrencies despite potential higher volatility and leverage risks.
As the open interest dominance shifts from Bitcoin towards Ethereum and Solana, the market dynamics are evolving, indicating a growing emphasis on altcoins. With this shift, it becomes increasingly important for investors to exercise caution and diligence in their investment strategies.
