Weekend forex rates for May 3rd and 4th: A detailed analysis
On the trading front, the dollar's closing rate against the Kazakhstani tenge climbed significantly to 516.20 tenge, marking a rise of 3.72 tenge. The Russian ruble, nevertheless, experienced a slight dip, averaging 6.26 tenge (-0.04). The Chinese yuan, unfortunately, stayed out of the picture due to a Chinese public holiday in Russia.
In the bustling exchange offices, the buying and selling of dollars hovered between 516.7 and 519.1 tenge, euros ranged from 584.5 to 588.5 tenge, while rubles saw a range of 6.11 to 6.23 tenge. The National Bank had set the initial rates for May 2 at 512.34 tenge for the dollar, 582.07 tenge for the euro, and 6.31 tenge for the ruble.
A closer look reveals that the tenge has been experiencing considerable fluctuations, subject to economic pressure and policy adjustments. Specifically, the USD/KZT exchange rate has been on the rise, with analysts revising their average forecast for 2025 to 512.8 tenge per dollar. This projected depreciation is more pronounced than earlier estimates of 489.5. The decline in oil prices (Brent crude currently forecasted at $74.60/barrel) and geopolitical risks, such as U.S. trade policies, are key factors contributing to this devaluation.
While the RUB/KZT exchange rate is not specifically detailed in the data, analysts note that the ruble's potential weakening, tied to prolonged Ukraine-related negotiations, could further impact tenge volatility due to regional economic ties.
The euro/tenge exchange rate currently stands at approximately 581.54 tenge per euro, as the National Bank maintains a flexible exchange rate regime, prioritizing market neutrality while employing National Fund currency sales to keep the tenge stable. The National Bank also intervened in April to counter depreciation pressures, with plans for additional interventions in May to support the budget. Average daily forex volumes on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange were steady at $246 million for the month of April, totaling $5.4 billion for the entire month.
In summary, the tenge is exhibiting a downward trend due to commodity markets and external shocks, with the National Bank taking active measures to manage liquidity and maintain stability.
I, being an analyst, am revising my average forecast for the exchange rate of euros to rubles in 2025, predicting a higher value as compared to previous estimates, potentially due to the continued Ukraine-related negotiations affecting the Russian ruble.
On a separate note, while conducting a financial analysis, I observe that, due to the National Bank's continuous efforts to maintain market neutrality and counter depreciation pressures, the average selling rate of euros in exchange offices has remained relatively steady compared to the rubles.
Additionally, I consider the possibility of selling large amounts of euros instead of rubles, given the attractiveness of the European economy compared to Russia's current economic climate, where the ruble is experiencing a significant dip.
